Wed, Feb 18 2026 • 17:45 • Estadio Alfredo di Stefano
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.14 (league 1.82) 0.52 (league 1.55)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
73.0% 17.2% 7.6%
best score tips
2 - 0
16.1%
1 - 0
15.0%
3 - 0
11.5%
Score & goals probability table
Paris FC W
0 1 2 3 4 5
Real Madrid W 0 7.0% 3.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
1 15.0% 7.7% 2.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
2 16.1% 8.3% 2.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
3 11.5% 5.9% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
4 6.2% 3.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 2.6% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricReal Madrid WParis FC W
Played55
Form53%47%
Attack40%30%
Defense70%70%
Goals For (tot | avg)8 | 1.66 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.26 | 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.40
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.10
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

85%
FT probability

2.5+

60%
FT probability

3.5+

43%
FT probability

BTTS

69%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 2 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Real Madrid W Paris FC W
HATHAT
Played459549
Wins75%60%67%20%50%33%
Draws25%20%22%40%25%33%
Loses0%20%11%40%25%33%

Form: Real Madrid W: WWWWDLWDW • Paris FC W: DWDLDWWLL

League goals

Metric Real Madrid W Paris FC W
HATHAT
GF total129216410
GF avg3.01.82.31.21.01.1
GA total37107512
GA avg0.81.41.11.41.31.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineReal Madrid WParis FC W
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.5100%78%67%56%
1.567%33%44%44%
2.533%0%0%22%
3.511%0%0%11%
4.511%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricReal Madrid WParis FC W
HATHAT
Clean sheets202224
Failed to score000213

Penalties

MetricReal Madrid WParis FC W
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total02

Streaks

MetricReal Madrid WParis FC W
Wins42
Draws11
Losses11

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins6-22-32-00-2
Biggest losses—2-10-24-0
Goals For6322
Goals Against2234

Model comparison

MetricReal Madrid WParis FC W
Form53%47%
Att57%43%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution82%18%
H2h36%64%
Goals45%55%
Total53.8%46.2%

Advice: Double chance : Real Madrid W or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.43 @ Pinnacle
Draw5.29 @ Pinnacle
Away7.10 @ 10Bet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.50 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.61 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.67 @ Bet365
No2.17 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Real Madrid W = 2.14 (league 1.82), Paris FC W = 0.52 (league 1.55)

Paris FC W
0 1 2 3 4 5
Real Madrid W 0 7.0% 3.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
1 15.0% 7.7% 2.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
2 16.1% 8.3% 2.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
3 11.5% 5.9% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
4 6.2% 3.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 2.6% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 73.0% · Draw 17.2% · Away win 7.6%

vtt 1 , vtd1