Sat, Feb 7 2026 • 17:00 • Stadion Schützenwiese
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.22 (league 1.84) 2.37 (league 1.36)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
18.1% 18.7% 59.6%
best score tips
1 - 2
9.5%
1 - 1
8.0%
0 - 2
7.8%
Score & goals probability table
FC Lugano
0 1 2 3 4 5
FC Winterthur 0 2.8% 6.6% 7.8% 6.1% 3.6% 1.7%
1 3.4% 8.0% 9.5% 7.5% 4.4% 2.1%
2 2.1% 4.9% 5.8% 4.5% 2.7% 1.3%
3 0.8% 2.0% 2.3% 1.8% 1.1% 0.5%
4 0.3% 0.6% 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricFC WinterthurFC Lugano
Played55
Form27%87%
Attack40%93%
Defense13%73%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.214 | 2.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)13 | 2.64 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.90
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.90
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.70
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

68%
FT probability

3.5+

48%
FT probability

BTTS

78%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric FC Winterthur FC Lugano
HATHAT
Played101121111122
Wins20%9%14%64%45%55%
Draws20%18%19%18%18%18%
Loses60%73%67%18%36%27%

Form: FC Winterthur: LDLDLLLLLDLWLLWLDLLLW • FC Lugano: LLWLLDWWWLWWWLDDWWWWWD

League goals

Metric FC Winterthur FC Lugano
HATHAT
GF total161026231538
GF avg1.60.91.22.11.41.7
GA total233457121527
GA avg2.33.12.71.11.41.2

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineFC WinterthurFC Lugano
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.567%100%86%68%
1.543%81%36%36%
2.510%52%27%14%
3.55%29%18%5%
4.50%10%5%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricFC WinterthurFC Lugano
HATHAT
Clean sheets000347
Failed to score167033

Penalties

MetricFC WinterthurFC Lugano
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%3 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total13

Streaks

MetricFC WinterthurFC Lugano
Wins15
Draws12
Losses52

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-21-34-12-5
Biggest losses1-45-01-34-0
Goals For4345
Goals Against4534

Model comparison

MetricFC WinterthurFC Lugano
Form24%76%
Att30%70%
Def24%76%
Poisson Distribution37%63%
H2h0%100%
Goals32%68%
Total29.4%70.6%

Advice: Double chance : draw or FC Lugano

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home5.00 @ 10Bet
Draw4.53 @ Pinnacle
Away1.69 @ 188Bet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.51 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.52.65 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.61 @ 188Bet
No2.48 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): FC Winterthur = 1.22 (league 1.84), FC Lugano = 2.37 (league 1.36)

FC Lugano
0 1 2 3 4 5
FC Winterthur 0 2.8% 6.6% 7.8% 6.1% 3.6% 1.7%
1 3.4% 8.0% 9.5% 7.5% 4.4% 2.1%
2 2.1% 4.9% 5.8% 4.5% 2.7% 1.3%
3 0.8% 2.0% 2.3% 1.8% 1.1% 0.5%
4 0.3% 0.6% 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 18.1% · Draw 18.7% · Away win 59.6%

vtt 1 , vtd1