Eliteserien
— Norway
Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 14:00 •
Fredrikstad Stadion
Expected Goals
1.13 (league 1.77)
0.74 (league 1.36)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 44.7% | 31.3% | 23.9% |
best score tips
1 - 0
17.5%
0 - 0
15.5%
1 - 1
12.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Viking | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Fredrikstad | 0 | 15.4% | 11.4% | 4.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 17.5% | 12.9% | 4.7% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 9.9% | 7.3% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away strong edge
Viking carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 149 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Fredrikstad -5.0, Viking +15.8.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Fredrikstad
vs
Viking
Elo gapViking +149
Home / draw / away25% / 18% / 57%
Expected home share30%
Combined Elo3354.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3354.9
Elo home share
30%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Fredrikstad | Viking |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1585.6 | 1769.3 |
| Form Elo | 1578.9 | 1790.1 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1516.6 | 1619.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1563 | 1990.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1581.9 | 1701 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -5.0 | +15.8 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Fredrikstad last-5 Elo change: -5.0; Viking last-5 Elo change: +15.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Fredrikstad | Viking |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 80% |
| Attack | 64% | 100% |
| Defense | 9% | 55% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 14 | 2.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.20
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
87%
FT probability
2.5+
61%
FT probability
3.5+
44%
FT probability
BTTS
79%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Fredrikstad | Viking | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| Wins | 50% | 33% | 40% | 100% | 50% | 80% |
| Draws | 50% | 0% | 20% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Loses | 0% | 67% | 40% | 0% | 50% | 20% |
FredrikstadLWWDL
VikingLWWWW
League goals
| Metric | Fredrikstad | Viking | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 4 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 2 | 14 |
| GF avg | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 2.8 |
| GA total | 2 | 8 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Fredrikstad | Viking | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 60% | 100% | 100% | 60% |
| 1.5 | 40% | 60% | 60% | 40% |
| 2.5 | 40% | 20% | 60% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 20% | 40% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 20% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Fredrikstad | Viking | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Penalties
| Metric | Fredrikstad | Viking |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Fredrikstad | Viking |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 0 |
| Draws | 1 | 0 |
| Losses | 1 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | 2-3 | 5-0 | 0-1 |
| Biggest losses | — | 4-0 | — | 2-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Fredrikstad | Viking |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 37% | 63% |
| Att | 33% | 67% |
| Def | 33% | 67% |
| Poisson Distribution | 58% | 42% |
| H2h | 29% | 71% |
| Goals | 31% | 69% |
| Total | 36.8% | 63.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home4.50 @ Bet365
Draw4.20 @ Pinnacle
Away1.75 @ Unibet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.56 @ Unibet
Under 2.52.54 @ Pinnacle
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.53 @ 10Bet
No2.40 @ William Hill
📊
League standings
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