Eliteserien
— Norway
Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 12:30 •
Aker Stadion
Expected Goals
0.56 (league 1.77)
0.77 (league 1.36)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 24.1% | 39.0% | 36.9% |
best score tips
0 - 0
26.2%
0 - 1
20.3%
1 - 0
14.8%
Score & goals probability table
| Valerenga | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Molde | 0 | 26.2% | 20.3% | 7.9% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 14.8% | 11.5% | 4.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Molde +12.9, Valerenga +9.1.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
Molde
vs
Valerenga
Elo gapMolde +13
Home / draw / away37% / 28% / 35%
Expected home share52%
Combined Elo3120.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3120.1
Elo home share
52%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Molde | Valerenga |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1549.2 | 1570.9 |
| Form Elo | 1561 | 1572.4 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1524.8 | 1483.6 |
| Attack Elo | 1636.5 | 1633.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1602.2 | 1504.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +12.9 | +9.1 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Molde last-5 Elo change: +12.9; Valerenga last-5 Elo change: +9.1.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Molde | Valerenga |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 47% |
| Attack | 73% | 36% |
| Defense | 36% | 64% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 4 | 0.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.20
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
66%
FT probability
2.5+
47%
FT probability
3.5+
33%
FT probability
BTTS
66%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Molde | Valerenga | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 3 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| Wins | 67% | 0% | 40% | 33% | 50% | 40% |
| Draws | 0% | 50% | 20% | 0% | 50% | 20% |
| Loses | 33% | 50% | 40% | 67% | 0% | 40% |
MoldeWLLWD
ValerengaWWLDL
League goals
| Metric | Molde | Valerenga | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 6 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| GF avg | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| GA total | 2 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| GA avg | 0.7 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.8 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Molde | Valerenga | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 80% | 80% | 60% | 60% |
| 1.5 | 40% | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| 2.5 | 20% | 20% | 0% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 20% | 20% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Molde | Valerenga | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | Molde | Valerenga |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Molde | Valerenga |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 2 |
| Draws | 0 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | — | 1-0 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-1 | 4-1 | 0-2 | — |
| Goals For | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Molde | Valerenga |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 67% | 33% |
| Def | 36% | 64% |
| Poisson Distribution | 41% | 59% |
| H2h | 93% | 7% |
| Goals | 76% | 24% |
| Total | 60.5% | 39.5% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.05 @ Dafabet
Draw3.90 @ Betfair
Away3.46 @ 1xBet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.56 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.52.55 @ Betfair
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.50 @ Bet365
No2.63 @ Unibet
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League standings
Loading standings…