Eliteserien
— Norway
Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 17:15 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
3.40 (league 1.77)
0.96 (league 1.36)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 70.0% | 10.4% | 6.7% |
best score tips
3 - 0
8.4%
3 - 1
8.0%
2 - 0
7.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Bodo/Glimt | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Lillestrom | 0 | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 4.4% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 7.4% | 7.1% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 8.4% | 8.0% | 3.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 7.1% | 6.8% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 4.8% | 4.6% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Lillestrom carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 23 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Lillestrom +32.2, Bodo/Glimt -3.5.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Lillestrom
vs
Bodo/Glimt
Elo gapLillestrom +23
Home / draw / away39% / 27% / 34%
Expected home share53%
Combined Elo3484.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3484.4
Elo home share
53%
Match tone
Must Watch
| Metric | Lillestrom | Bodo/Glimt |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1736.4 | 1748 |
| Form Elo | 1764.1 | 1745 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1605.1 | 1581.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1926.4 | 1955.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1677.7 | 1658.9 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +32.2 | -3.5 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Lillestrom last-5 Elo change: +32.2; Bodo/Glimt last-5 Elo change: -3.5.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Lillestrom | Bodo/Glimt |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 4 |
| Form | 87% | 58% |
| Attack | 90% | 70% |
| Defense | 80% | 40% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 7 | 1.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 6 | 1.5 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.60
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
91%
FT probability
2.5+
64%
FT probability
3.5+
46%
FT probability
BTTS
71%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-2
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Lillestrom | Bodo/Glimt | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 1 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| Wins | 100% | 75% | 80% | 100% | 33% | 50% |
| Draws | 0% | 25% | 20% | 0% | 33% | 25% |
| Loses | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 33% | 25% |
LillestromWWWDW
Bodo/GlimtWLDW
League goals
| Metric | Lillestrom | Bodo/Glimt | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 3 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| GF avg | 3.0 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| GA total | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Lillestrom | Bodo/Glimt | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 80% | 40% | 75% | 50% |
| 1.5 | 60% | 0% | 50% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 40% | 0% | 50% | 25% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 25% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 25% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Lillestrom | Bodo/Glimt | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Lillestrom | Bodo/Glimt |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Lillestrom | Bodo/Glimt |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 0 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | 1-3 | 3-0 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | — | — | — | 5-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Lillestrom | Bodo/Glimt |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 65% | 35% |
| Att | 56% | 44% |
| Def | 75% | 25% |
| Poisson Distribution | 77% | 23% |
| H2h | 20% | 80% |
| Goals | 27% | 73% |
| Total | 53.3% | 46.7% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home3.22 @ Pinnacle
Draw4.20 @ Bet365
Away2.08 @ Dafabet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.42 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.53.10 @ Betfair
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.40 @ Bet365
No3.10 @ Betfair
📊
League standings
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