Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 14:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
0.53 (league 1.86)
0.58 (league 1.10)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 26.5% | 43.8% | 29.7% |
best score tips
0 - 0
32.8%
0 - 1
19.1%
1 - 0
17.5%
Score & goals probability table
| Sozopol | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Asenovets | 0 | 32.8% | 19.1% | 5.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 17.5% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 4.7% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away strong edge
Sozopol carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 121 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Asenovets -6.4, Sozopol +33.5.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Asenovets
vs
Sozopol
Elo gapSozopol +121
Home / draw / away27% / 18% / 55%
Expected home share33%
Combined Elo2887.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2887.6
Elo home share
33%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Asenovets | Sozopol |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1365.6 | 1522 |
| Form Elo | 1357.1 | 1529.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1469.1 | 1463.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1369.1 | 1500.7 |
| Defense Elo | 1197.2 | 1589.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -6.4 | +33.5 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Asenovets last-5 Elo change: -6.4; Sozopol last-5 Elo change: +33.5.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Asenovets | Sozopol |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 67% |
| Attack | 33% | 100% |
| Defense | 11% | 56% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 9 | 1.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.10
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
66%
FT probability
2.5+
47%
FT probability
3.5+
33%
FT probability
BTTS
60%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Asenovets | Sozopol | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 14 | 28 | 15 | 14 | 29 |
| Wins | 36% | 0% | 18% | 67% | 14% | 41% |
| Draws | 14% | 21% | 18% | 7% | 29% | 17% |
| Loses | 50% | 79% | 64% | 27% | 57% | 41% |
AsenovetsLWDLLLLLLWLLLDLWLLLDDLWLLWDL
SozopolWWLWLLLLLDLWWDWLWWDWLDLLWDWLW
League goals
| Metric | Asenovets | Sozopol | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 13 | 9 | 22 | 32 | 5 | 37 |
| GF avg | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 22 | 39 | 61 | 14 | 16 | 30 |
| GA avg | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Asenovets | Sozopol | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 64% | 82% | 59% | 62% |
| 1.5 | 14% | 75% | 34% | 31% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 36% | 21% | 10% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 18% | 10% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 7% | 3% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Asenovets | Sozopol | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 11 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 9 | 12 |
Penalties
| Metric | Asenovets | Sozopol |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Asenovets | Sozopol |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 6 | 5 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-1 | — | 5-0 | 0-1 |
| Biggest losses | 0-5 | 5-0 | 0-2 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Asenovets | Sozopol |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 29% | 71% |
| Att | 25% | 75% |
| Def | 33% | 67% |
| Poisson Distribution | 53% | 47% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 47% | 53% |
| Total | 39.5% | 60.5% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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