Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 14:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
1.81 (league 1.85)
0.88 (league 1.12)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 58.3% | 22.7% | 17.9% |
best score tips
1 - 0
12.3%
2 - 0
11.1%
1 - 1
10.8%
Score & goals probability table
| Levski Karlovo | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Spartak Plovdiv | 0 | 6.8% | 6.0% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 12.3% | 10.8% | 4.8% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 11.1% | 9.8% | 4.3% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 6.7% | 5.9% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 3.0% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Spartak Plovdiv carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 65 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Spartak Plovdiv +5.5, Levski Karlovo -15.2.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Spartak Plovdiv
vs
Levski Karlovo
Elo gapSpartak Plovdiv +65
Home / draw / away46% / 23% / 31%
Expected home share59%
Combined Elo3056.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3056.6
Elo home share
59%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Spartak Plovdiv | Levski Karlovo |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1543.1 | 1513.5 |
| Form Elo | 1541.9 | 1506.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1530.6 | 1474.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1622.4 | 1488.5 |
| Defense Elo | 1556.2 | 1378.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +5.5 | -15.2 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Spartak Plovdiv last-5 Elo change: +5.5; Levski Karlovo last-5 Elo change: -15.2.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Spartak Plovdiv | Levski Karlovo |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 40% |
| Attack | 29% | 38% |
| Defense | 71% | 29% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 15 | 3 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.10
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
81%
FT probability
2.5+
57%
FT probability
3.5+
41%
FT probability
BTTS
67%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Spartak Plovdiv | Levski Karlovo | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 14 | 28 | 15 | 14 | 29 |
| Wins | 50% | 29% | 39% | 73% | 29% | 52% |
| Draws | 36% | 29% | 32% | 7% | 21% | 14% |
| Loses | 14% | 43% | 29% | 20% | 50% | 34% |
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Levski KarlovoWLWDLWLWWLLWWWWDWLWWWDLDWLWLL
League goals
| Metric | Spartak Plovdiv | Levski Karlovo | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 29 | 16 | 45 | 30 | 13 | 43 |
| GF avg | 2.1 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| GA total | 15 | 18 | 33 | 20 | 22 | 42 |
| GA avg | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Spartak Plovdiv | Levski Karlovo | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 68% | 71% | 76% | 72% |
| 1.5 | 50% | 39% | 45% | 38% |
| 2.5 | 21% | 7% | 21% | 17% |
| 3.5 | 7% | 0% | 7% | 7% |
| 4.5 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 7% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Spartak Plovdiv | Levski Karlovo | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| Failed to score | 5 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 7 |
Penalties
| Metric | Spartak Plovdiv | Levski Karlovo |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Spartak Plovdiv | Levski Karlovo |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 4 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 7-2 | 2-3 | 4-0 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 3-2 | 0-5 | 6-0 |
| Goals For | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Spartak Plovdiv | Levski Karlovo |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 54% | 46% |
| Att | 43% | 57% |
| Def | 71% | 29% |
| Poisson Distribution | 67% | 33% |
| H2h | 80% | 20% |
| Goals | 75% | 25% |
| Total | 65.0% | 35.0% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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