Fri, Apr 24 2026 • 16:00 •
Color Line Stadion
Expected Goals
1.15 (league 1.74)
1.43 (league 1.39)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 30.1% | 26.2% | 43.3% |
best score tips
1 - 1
12.5%
0 - 1
10.9%
1 - 2
8.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Rosenborg W | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Fortuna Ålesund W | 0 | 7.6% | 10.9% | 7.8% | 3.7% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 8.7% | 12.5% | 8.9% | 4.3% | 1.5% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 5.0% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Fortuna Ålesund W carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 64 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Fortuna Ålesund W -3.9, Rosenborg W +8.9.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Fortuna Ålesund W
vs
Rosenborg W
Elo gapFortuna Ålesund W +64
Home / draw / away46% / 23% / 31%
Expected home share59%
Combined Elo3237.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3237.5
Elo home share
59%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Fortuna Ålesund W | Rosenborg W |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1633.1 | 1604.4 |
| Form Elo | 1617.6 | 1620.4 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1550.1 | 1538.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1703.3 | 1690 |
| Defense Elo | 1619.9 | 1578.9 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -3.9 | +8.9 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Fortuna Ålesund W last-5 Elo change: -3.9; Rosenborg W last-5 Elo change: +8.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Fortuna Ålesund W | Rosenborg W |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 3 | 3 |
| Form | 44% | 56% |
| Attack | 28% | 22% |
| Defense | 72% | 89% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1.7 | 4 | 1.3 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1.7 | 2 | 0.7 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
81%
FT probability
2.5+
57%
FT probability
3.5+
41%
FT probability
BTTS
85%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Fortuna Ålesund W | Rosenborg W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Wins | 0% | 50% | 33% | 50% | 0% | 33% |
| Draws | 100% | 0% | 33% | 50% | 100% | 67% |
| Loses | 0% | 50% | 33% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Fortuna Ålesund WWDL
Rosenborg WDDW
League goals
| Metric | Fortuna Ålesund W | Rosenborg W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| GF avg | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| GA avg | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Fortuna Ålesund W | Rosenborg W | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 100% | 67% | 100% | 67% |
| 1.5 | 67% | 67% | 33% | 0% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 33% | 0% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Fortuna Ålesund W | Rosenborg W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Penalties
| Metric | Fortuna Ålesund W | Rosenborg W |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Fortuna Ålesund W | Rosenborg W |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 0 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 0 | 0 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | — | 0-2 | 2-0 | — |
| Biggest losses | — | 3-1 | — | — |
| Goals For | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Fortuna Ålesund W | Rosenborg W |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 44% | 56% |
| Att | 56% | 44% |
| Def | 29% | 71% |
| Poisson Distribution | 58% | 42% |
| H2h | 0% | 0% |
| Goals | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 46.8% | 53.3% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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