Sat, May 2 2026 • 11:00 •
Malmo IP
Expected Goals
0.59 (league 1.70)
1.28 (league 1.56)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 17.0% | 29.4% | 53.4% |
best score tips
0 - 1
19.7%
0 - 0
15.4%
0 - 2
12.7%
Score & goals probability table
| Malmö FF W | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Rosengård W | 0 | 15.4% | 19.7% | 12.7% | 5.4% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 9.0% | 11.6% | 7.5% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 2.7% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away strong edge
Malmö FF W carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 139 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Rosengård W -8.9, Malmö FF W +17.1.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Rosengård W
vs
Malmö FF W
Elo gapMalmö FF W +139
Home / draw / away25% / 18% / 57%
Expected home share31%
Combined Elo3082.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3082.4
Elo home share
31%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Rosengård W | Malmö FF W |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1454 | 1628.4 |
| Form Elo | 1443.9 | 1651.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1470.4 | 1579.6 |
| Attack Elo | 1537.1 | 1715.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1457.1 | 1589.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -8.9 | +17.1 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Rosengård W last-5 Elo change: -8.9; Malmö FF W last-5 Elo change: +17.1.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Rosengård W | Malmö FF W |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 3 | 3 |
| Form | 11% | 78% |
| Attack | 38% | 75% |
| Defense | 25% | 88% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 3 | 1 | 6 | 2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0.3 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
74%
FT probability
2.5+
52%
FT probability
3.5+
37%
FT probability
BTTS
84%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-1
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Rosengård W | Malmö FF W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Wins | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 67% |
| Draws | 0% | 50% | 33% | 0% | 100% | 33% |
| Loses | 100% | 50% | 67% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Rosengård WLLD
Malmö FF WWDW
League goals
| Metric | Rosengård W | Malmö FF W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 6 |
| GF avg | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| GA total | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| GA avg | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Rosengård W | Malmö FF W | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 33% |
| 1.5 | 0% | 67% | 67% | 0% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 33% | 33% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Rosengård W | Malmö FF W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Penalties
| Metric | Rosengård W | Malmö FF W |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Rosengård W | Malmö FF W |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 0 | 1 |
| Draws | 0 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 0 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | — | — | 3-0 | — |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 3-1 | — | — |
| Goals For | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Rosengård W | Malmö FF W |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 13% | 88% |
| Att | 33% | 67% |
| Def | 14% | 86% |
| Poisson Distribution | 23% | 77% |
| H2h | 13% | 88% |
| Goals | 33% | 67% |
| Total | 21.5% | 78.8% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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