Wed, Jan 14 2026 • 20:00 • AFAS Stadion
Match Finished
Expected Goals
3.29 (league 1.82) 3.27 (league 2.14)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
31.7% 15.4% 31.2%
best score tips
3 - 3
4.9%
3 - 2
4.5%
2 - 3
4.5%
Score & goals probability table
Ajax
0 1 2 3 4 5
AZ Alkmaar 0 0.1% 0.5% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.4%
1 0.5% 1.5% 2.5% 2.7% 2.2% 1.4%
2 0.8% 2.5% 4.1% 4.5% 3.6% 2.4%
3 0.8% 2.8% 4.5% 4.9% 4.0% 2.6%
4 0.7% 2.3% 3.7% 4.0% 3.3% 2.2%
5 0.5% 1.5% 2.4% 2.7% 2.2% 1.4%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricAZ AlkmaarAjax
Played11
Form100%100%
Attack13%30%
Defense96%91%
Goals For (tot | avg)3 | 37 | 7
Goals Against (tot | avg)1 | 12 | 2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

10.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

7.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

85%
FT probability

3.5+

70%
FT probability

BTTS

100%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

0 - 1 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric AZ Alkmaar Ajax
HATHAT
Played011011
Wins—100%100%—100%100%
Draws—0%0%—0%0%
Loses—0%0%—0%0%

Form: AZ Alkmaar: W • Ajax: W

League goals

Metric AZ Alkmaar Ajax
HATHAT
GF total033077
GF avg0.03.03.00.07.07.0
GA total011022
GA avg0.01.01.00.02.02.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineAZ AlkmaarAjax
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.5100%100%100%100%
1.5100%0%100%100%
2.5100%0%100%0%
3.50%0%100%0%
4.50%0%100%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricAZ AlkmaarAjax
HATHAT
Clean sheets000000
Failed to score000000

Penalties

MetricAZ AlkmaarAjax
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricAZ AlkmaarAjax
Wins11
Draws00
Losses00

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins—1-3—2-7
Biggest losses————
Goals For0307
Goals Against0102

Model comparison

MetricAZ AlkmaarAjax
Form50%50%
Att30%70%
Def67%33%
Poisson Distribution0%0%
H2h93%7%
Goals77%23%
Total63.4%36.6%

Advice: Combo Double chance : AZ Alkmaar or draw and +3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.99 @ Dafabet
Draw3.90 @ Bet365
Away3.55 @ 10Bet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.53 @ Unibet
Under 2.52.72 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.47 @ Unibet
No2.77 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): AZ Alkmaar = 3.29 (league 1.82), Ajax = 3.27 (league 2.14)

Ajax
0 1 2 3 4 5
AZ Alkmaar 0 0.1% 0.5% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.4%
1 0.5% 1.5% 2.5% 2.7% 2.2% 1.4%
2 0.8% 2.5% 4.1% 4.5% 3.6% 2.4%
3 0.8% 2.8% 4.5% 4.9% 4.0% 2.6%
4 0.7% 2.3% 3.7% 4.0% 3.3% 2.2%
5 0.5% 1.5% 2.4% 2.7% 2.2% 1.4%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 31.7% · Draw 15.4% · Away win 31.2%

vtt 4 , vtd1