Veikkausliiga
— Finland
Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 13:00 •
Vare Areena
Expected Goals
0.37 (league 1.63)
1.89 (league 1.59)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 6.4% | 19.2% | 73.2% |
best score tips
0 - 1
19.8%
0 - 2
18.7%
0 - 3
11.7%
Score & goals probability table
| HJK Helsinki | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| KuPS | 0 | 10.5% | 19.8% | 18.7% | 11.7% | 5.5% | 2.1% |
| 1 | 3.9% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 0.8% | |
| 2 | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
KuPS carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 76 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: KuPS +27.9, HJK Helsinki +11.1.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
KuPS
vs
HJK Helsinki
Elo gapKuPS +76
Home / draw / away48% / 21% / 31%
Expected home share61%
Combined Elo3194.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3194.8
Elo home share
61%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | KuPS | HJK Helsinki |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1617.7 | 1577.1 |
| Form Elo | 1646.2 | 1594 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1579.3 | 1535.5 |
| Attack Elo | 1557.2 | 1735.5 |
| Defense Elo | 1632.6 | 1549.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +27.9 | +11.1 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. KuPS last-5 Elo change: +27.9; HJK Helsinki last-5 Elo change: +11.1.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | KuPS | HJK Helsinki |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 4 | 3 |
| Form | 83% | 67% |
| Attack | 57% | 43% |
| Defense | 71% | 93% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 2 | 6 | 2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.3 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
5.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
81%
FT probability
2.5+
57%
FT probability
3.5+
40%
FT probability
BTTS
64%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | KuPS | HJK Helsinki | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Wins | 100% | 50% | 75% | 50% | 100% | 67% |
| Draws | 0% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Loses | 0% | 0% | 0% | 50% | 0% | 33% |
KuPSWWDW
HJK HelsinkiWLW
League goals
| Metric | KuPS | HJK Helsinki | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 4 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| GF avg | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 2.0 |
| GA total | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | KuPS | HJK Helsinki | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 100% | 75% | 67% | 33% |
| 1.5 | 50% | 25% | 67% | 0% |
| 2.5 | 50% | 0% | 67% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | KuPS | HJK Helsinki | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | KuPS | HJK Helsinki |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | KuPS | HJK Helsinki |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 0 |
| Losses | 0 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-2 | 1-3 | 3-0 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | — | — | 0-1 | — |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Model comparison
| Metric | KuPS | HJK Helsinki |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 63% | 38% |
| Att | 57% | 43% |
| Def | 20% | 80% |
| Poisson Distribution | 0% | 100% |
| H2h | 71% | 29% |
| Goals | 80% | 20% |
| Total | 58.2% | 42.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.59 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.60 @ Pinnacle
Away2.60 @ Pinnacle
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.69 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.52.19 @ Pinnacle
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.57 @ Bet365
No2.40 @ William Hill
📊
League standings
Loading standings…