Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 13:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
4.26 (league 2.34)
2.84 (league 1.76)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 38.8% | 12.7% | 17.7% |
best score tips
4 - 2
4.6%
4 - 3
4.3%
3 - 2
4.3%
Score & goals probability table
| Nardo | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Molde II | 0 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.5% | |
| 2 | 0.7% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.2% | |
| 3 | 1.1% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.7% | |
| 4 | 1.1% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 1.8% | |
| 5 | 1.0% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.5% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
Nardo carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 29 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Molde II -9.2, Nardo +0.8.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Molde II
vs
Nardo
Elo gapNardo +29
Home / draw / away34% / 27% / 39%
Expected home share46%
Combined Elo2945.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2945.4
Elo home share
46%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Molde II | Nardo |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1440.6 | 1504.8 |
| Form Elo | 1421.9 | 1510 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1489.7 | 1493.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1705.9 | 1596.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1149.8 | 1466.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -9.2 | +0.8 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Molde II last-5 Elo change: -9.2; Nardo last-5 Elo change: +0.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Molde II | Nardo |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 3 | 3 |
| Form | 22% | 33% |
| Attack | 35% | 23% |
| Defense | 54% | 81% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 9 | 3 | 6 | 2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 12 | 4 | 5 | 1.7 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
5.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
6.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
5.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
7.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
85%
FT probability
3.5+
70%
FT probability
BTTS
97%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Molde II | Nardo | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Wins | 0% | 0% | 0% | 50% | 0% | 33% |
| Draws | 100% | 50% | 67% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Loses | 0% | 50% | 33% | 50% | 100% | 67% |
Molde IIDDL
NardoLLW
League goals
| Metric | Molde II | Nardo | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 5 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 6 |
| GF avg | 5.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| GA total | 5 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| GA avg | 5.0 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Molde II | Nardo | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 100% | 100% | 67% | 100% |
| 1.5 | 67% | 100% | 33% | 67% |
| 2.5 | 67% | 100% | 33% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 33% | 67% | 33% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 33% | 33% | 33% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Molde II | Nardo | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Molde II | Nardo |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Molde II | Nardo |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 0 | 0 |
| Draws | 2 | 0 |
| Losses | 0 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | — | — | 5-1 | — |
| Biggest losses | — | 4-1 | 0-2 | 2-1 |
| Goals For | 5 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Molde II | Nardo |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 40% | 60% |
| Att | 60% | 40% |
| Def | 29% | 71% |
| Poisson Distribution | 64% | 36% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 36% | 64% |
| Total | 45.8% | 54.2% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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