Fri, May 1 2026 • 12:30 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
1.42 (league 2.47)
2.12 (league 1.77)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 25.2% | 20.9% | 51.5% |
best score tips
1 - 2
9.3%
1 - 1
8.8%
2 - 2
6.6%
Score & goals probability table
| Austevoll | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Varegg | 0 | 2.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 1.0% |
| 1 | 4.1% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 6.5% | 3.5% | 1.5% | |
| 2 | 2.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 1.0% | |
| 3 | 1.4% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.5% | |
| 4 | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Varegg carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 20 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Varegg -22.9, Austevoll -11.7.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Varegg
vs
Austevoll
Elo gapVaregg +20
Home / draw / away38% / 28% / 34%
Expected home share53%
Combined Elo2961.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2961.6
Elo home share
53%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Varegg | Austevoll |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1473.3 | 1488.3 |
| Form Elo | 1451.7 | 1467.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1486 | 1493.5 |
| Attack Elo | 1474.6 | 1499.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1424.9 | 1480.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -22.9 | -11.7 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Varegg last-5 Elo change: -22.9; Austevoll last-5 Elo change: -11.7.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Varegg | Austevoll |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 4 | 3 |
| Form | 25% | 22% |
| Attack | 19% | 23% |
| Defense | 62% | 69% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1.3 | 6 | 2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 10 | 2.5 | 8 | 2.7 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
5.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
5.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
85%
FT probability
3.5+
61%
FT probability
BTTS
90%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Varegg | Austevoll | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Wins | 50% | 0% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Draws | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 50% | 67% |
| Loses | 50% | 100% | 75% | 0% | 50% | 33% |
VareggLLWL
AustevollDDL
League goals
| Metric | Varegg | Austevoll | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
| GF avg | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 2.0 |
| GA total | 3 | 7 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 8 |
| GA avg | 1.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 3.5 | 2.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Varegg | Austevoll | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 100% | 75% | 100% | 100% |
| 1.5 | 25% | 75% | 33% | 67% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 75% | 33% | 67% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 25% | 33% | 33% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Varegg | Austevoll | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Penalties
| Metric | Varegg | Austevoll |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Varegg | Austevoll |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 0 |
| Draws | 0 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 0 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 1-0 | — | — | — |
| Biggest losses | 1-3 | 4-2 | — | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 4 | 1 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Varegg | Austevoll |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 60% | 40% |
| Att | 45% | 55% |
| Def | 44% | 56% |
| Poisson Distribution | 40% | 60% |
| H2h | 0% | 0% |
| Goals | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 47.3% | 52.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…