3. Division - Girone 6 — Norway
Mon, Apr 27 2026 • 16:00 • Venue TBA
Not Started

Lillehammer

—

Sarpsborg 08 II

Expected Goals
3.39 (league 2.21) 1.70 (league 1.76)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
57.2% 14.0% 15.3%
best score tips
3 - 1
6.8%
2 - 1
6.0%
3 - 2
5.8%
Score & goals probability table
Sarpsborg 08 II
0 1 2 3 4 5
Lillehammer 0 0.6% 1.0% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
1 2.1% 3.5% 3.0% 1.7% 0.7% 0.2%
2 3.5% 6.0% 5.1% 2.9% 1.2% 0.4%
3 4.0% 6.8% 5.8% 3.3% 1.4% 0.5%
4 3.4% 5.8% 4.9% 2.8% 1.2% 0.4%
5 2.3% 3.9% 3.3% 1.9% 0.8% 0.3%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Home strong edge

Lillehammer carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 130 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Lillehammer +10.2, Sarpsborg 08 II -2.6.

Strong confidence Upset risk: Low Elo standalone
Lillehammer Elo 1547.6 · +10.2
vs
Sarpsborg 08 II Elo 1452.7 · -2.6
Elo gapLillehammer +130
Home / draw / away56% / 18% / 26%
Expected home share68%
Combined Elo3000.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Home strong edge
Confidence band Strong confidence
Upset risk Low
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 3000.3
Elo home share 68%
Match tone Heavy Favorite
Metric Lillehammer Sarpsborg 08 II
Overall Elo1547.61452.7
Form Elo1554.71448.3
Home / Away Elo1511.31488
Attack Elo1564.71527.3
Defense Elo1441.11436.4
Last 5 Elo change+10.2-2.6

This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Lillehammer last-5 Elo change: +10.2; Sarpsborg 08 II last-5 Elo change: -2.6.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricLillehammerSarpsborg 08 II
Played33
Form67%11%
Attack44%28%
Defense67%56%
Goals For (tot | avg)8 | 2.75 | 1.7
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 28 | 2.7

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.40
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.50
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.70
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

85%
FT probability

3.5+

65%
FT probability

BTTS

95%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

na
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Lillehammer Sarpsborg 08 II
HATHAT
Played123123
Wins100%50%67%0%0%0%
Draws0%0%0%0%50%33%
Loses0%50%33%100%50%67%
LillehammerWWL
Sarpsborg 08 IILLD

League goals

Metric Lillehammer Sarpsborg 08 II
HATHAT
GF total358235
GF avg3.02.52.72.01.51.7
GA total246358
GA avg2.02.02.03.02.52.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineLillehammerSarpsborg 08 II
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.5100%67%100%100%
1.5100%67%67%100%
2.567%33%0%67%
3.50%33%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricLillehammerSarpsborg 08 II
HATHAT
Clean sheets011000
Failed to score000000

Penalties

MetricLillehammerSarpsborg 08 II
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricLillehammerSarpsborg 08 II
Wins20
Draws00
Losses02

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-20-2——
Biggest losses—4-32-33-1
Goals For3322
Goals Against2433

Model comparison

MetricLillehammerSarpsborg 08 II
Form86%14%
Att62%38%
Def57%43%
Poisson Distribution69%31%
H2h0%0%
Goals0%0%
Total68.5%31.5%
💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

📊

League standings

Loading standings…
League page • Country page • Lillehammer vs Sarpsborg 08 II