Superettan
— Sweden
Sun, May 3 2026 • 13:00 •
Olympia
Expected Goals
0.92 (league 1.63)
1.21 (league 1.24)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 28.0% | 29.3% | 42.5% |
best score tips
0 - 1
14.4%
1 - 1
13.2%
0 - 0
11.9%
Score & goals probability table
| IK brage | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Helsingborg | 0 | 12.0% | 14.4% | 8.6% | 3.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 11.0% | 13.3% | 8.0% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 5.1% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
IK brage carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 38 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Helsingborg +7.1, IK brage +10.0.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Helsingborg
vs
IK brage
Elo gapIK brage +38
Home / draw / away33% / 26% / 41%
Expected home share45%
Combined Elo3047.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3047.2
Elo home share
45%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Helsingborg | IK brage |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1487.3 | 1559.9 |
| Form Elo | 1491.4 | 1568.7 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1511.8 | 1538.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1543.2 | 1589.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1441.2 | 1449.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +7.1 | +10.0 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Helsingborg last-5 Elo change: +7.1; IK brage last-5 Elo change: +10.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Helsingborg | IK brage |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 4 | 4 |
| Form | 50% | 58% |
| Attack | 47% | 47% |
| Defense | 47% | 59% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 2 | 8 | 2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 9 | 2.3 | 7 | 1.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.10
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
71%
FT probability
3.5+
50%
FT probability
BTTS
87%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Helsingborg | IK brage | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Wins | 100% | 0% | 50% | 0% | 100% | 50% |
| Draws | 0% | 0% | 0% | 50% | 0% | 25% |
| Loses | 0% | 100% | 50% | 50% | 0% | 25% |
HelsingborgWLWL
IK brageWLWD
League goals
| Metric | Helsingborg | IK brage | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 6 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| GF avg | 3.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| GA total | 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 7 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 1.8 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Helsingborg | IK brage | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 75% |
| 1.5 | 50% | 50% | 75% | 50% |
| 2.5 | 25% | 50% | 25% | 25% |
| 3.5 | 25% | 25% | 0% | 25% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Helsingborg | IK brage | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Penalties
| Metric | Helsingborg | IK brage |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Helsingborg | IK brage |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 1 |
| Draws | 0 | 0 |
| Losses | 1 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | — | — | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | — | 4-1 | 3-4 | — |
| Goals For | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 4 | 4 | 1 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Helsingborg | IK brage |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 46% | 54% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 44% | 56% |
| Poisson Distribution | 40% | 60% |
| H2h | 71% | 29% |
| Goals | 69% | 31% |
| Total | 53.3% | 46.7% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.33 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.72 @ Pinnacle
Away3.10 @ Unibet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.89 @ Unibet
Under 2.52.05 @ Bet365
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.68 @ Unibet
No2.20 @ Bet365
📊
League standings
Loading standings…