Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 12:00 •
Stadion Gradski
Expected Goals
2.08 (league 1.41)
0.58 (league 1.09)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 70.6% | 18.3% | 9.1% |
best score tips
2 - 0
15.2%
1 - 0
14.6%
3 - 0
10.5%
Score & goals probability table
| Jezero | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Sutjeska | 0 | 7.0% | 4.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 14.6% | 8.4% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 15.2% | 8.8% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 10.5% | 6.1% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 5.5% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Sutjeska carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 134 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Sutjeska +26.2, Jezero -22.9.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Sutjeska
vs
Jezero
Elo gapSutjeska +134
Home / draw / away56% / 18% / 26%
Expected home share68%
Combined Elo3114.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3114.1
Elo home share
68%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Sutjeska | Jezero |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1606.5 | 1507.6 |
| Form Elo | 1634.3 | 1487.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1563.8 | 1511.7 |
| Attack Elo | 1578.7 | 1478.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1583.1 | 1545.3 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +26.2 | -22.9 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Sutjeska last-5 Elo change: +26.2; Jezero last-5 Elo change: -22.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Sutjeska | Jezero |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 80% | 27% |
| Attack | 78% | 33% |
| Defense | 78% | 33% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 3 | 0.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.90
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.10
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
74%
FT probability
2.5+
52%
FT probability
3.5+
37%
FT probability
BTTS
70%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Sutjeska | Jezero | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 15 | 30 | 15 | 15 | 30 |
| Wins | 80% | 47% | 63% | 40% | 27% | 33% |
| Draws | 7% | 20% | 13% | 27% | 27% | 27% |
| Loses | 13% | 33% | 23% | 33% | 47% | 40% |
SutjeskaWWDLWWLWDLLWWWDWWWLLWDWWWWWLWW
JezeroLDDWDWWLDDLLLWLWWWWLDDWLLLLLDW
League goals
| Metric | Sutjeska | Jezero | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 31 | 20 | 51 | 21 | 14 | 35 |
| GF avg | 2.1 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| GA total | 11 | 18 | 29 | 17 | 21 | 38 |
| GA avg | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Sutjeska | Jezero | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 83% | 60% | 80% | 77% |
| 1.5 | 47% | 27% | 30% | 40% |
| 2.5 | 23% | 7% | 3% | 10% |
| 3.5 | 10% | 3% | 3% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Sutjeska | Jezero | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 6 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | Sutjeska | Jezero |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 5 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 5 |
Streaks
| Metric | Sutjeska | Jezero |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 5 | 4 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 5 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-2 | 0-2 | 4-0 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 3-1 | 1-3 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Sutjeska | Jezero |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 75% | 25% |
| Att | 70% | 30% |
| Def | 75% | 25% |
| Poisson Distribution | 75% | 25% |
| H2h | 29% | 71% |
| Goals | 33% | 67% |
| Total | 59.5% | 40.5% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…