Tue, Apr 28 2026 • 16:30 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
1.64 (league 1.50)
1.98 (league 1.28)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 31.8% | 21.6% | 44.4% |
best score tips
1 - 1
8.7%
1 - 2
8.6%
2 - 1
7.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Famalicão U23 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Benfica U23 | 0 | 2.7% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 4.4% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 5.7% | 2.8% | 1.1% | |
| 2 | 3.6% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 0.9% | |
| 3 | 2.0% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.5% | |
| 4 | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Benfica U23 -20.3, Famalicão U23 +16.6.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
Benfica U23
vs
Famalicão U23
Elo gapFamalicão U23 +11
Home / draw / away34% / 29% / 37%
Expected home share48%
Combined Elo3200.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3200.7
Elo home share
48%
Match tone
Must Watch
| Metric | Benfica U23 | Famalicão U23 |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1577.3 | 1623.4 |
| Form Elo | 1564.7 | 1648.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1558.5 | 1546.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1666.9 | 1683.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1492.1 | 1529.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -20.3 | +16.6 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Benfica U23 last-5 Elo change: -20.3; Famalicão U23 last-5 Elo change: +16.6.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Benfica U23 | Famalicão U23 |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 67% |
| Attack | 64% | 73% |
| Defense | 27% | 45% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.90
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
67%
FT probability
3.5+
48%
FT probability
BTTS
81%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Benfica U23 | Famalicão U23 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 15 | 29 | 14 | 13 | 27 |
| Wins | 71% | 47% | 59% | 57% | 54% | 56% |
| Draws | 7% | 7% | 7% | 14% | 31% | 22% |
| Loses | 21% | 47% | 34% | 29% | 15% | 22% |
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Famalicão U23LLWWDLWWLDWLWWDWDWWDWWWDLWW
League goals
| Metric | Benfica U23 | Famalicão U23 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 26 | 24 | 50 | 30 | 30 | 60 |
| GF avg | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.2 |
| GA total | 15 | 26 | 41 | 20 | 17 | 37 |
| GA avg | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Benfica U23 | Famalicão U23 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 86% | 83% | 93% | 78% |
| 1.5 | 48% | 45% | 70% | 44% |
| 2.5 | 21% | 10% | 26% | 11% |
| 3.5 | 14% | 3% | 19% | 4% |
| 4.5 | 3% | 0% | 7% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Benfica U23 | Famalicão U23 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | Benfica U23 | Famalicão U23 |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 5 | 100.00% | 5 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 5 | 5 |
Streaks
| Metric | Benfica U23 | Famalicão U23 |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 7 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 4 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | 2-5 | 6-2 | 0-6 |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 4-0 | 1-3 | 3-2 |
| Goals For | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Benfica U23 | Famalicão U23 |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 38% | 63% |
| Att | 47% | 53% |
| Def | 43% | 57% |
| Poisson Distribution | 47% | 53% |
| H2h | 40% | 60% |
| Goals | 47% | 53% |
| Total | 43.7% | 56.5% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…