Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 18:30 •
La Quema Stadium
Expected Goals
1.25 (league 1.04)
1.20 (league 0.67)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 37.3% | 27.3% | 35.1% |
best score tips
1 - 1
12.9%
1 - 0
10.8%
0 - 1
10.4%
Score & goals probability table
| CA Estudiantes | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Acassuso | 0 | 8.6% | 10.4% | 6.2% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 10.8% | 12.9% | 7.8% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 6.7% | 8.1% | 4.9% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 2.8% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Acassuso -29.3, CA Estudiantes +20.2.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
Acassuso
vs
CA Estudiantes
Elo gapCA Estudiantes +13
Home / draw / away34% / 29% / 37%
Expected home share48%
Combined Elo3015.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3015.1
Elo home share
48%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Acassuso | CA Estudiantes |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1483.7 | 1531.4 |
| Form Elo | 1471 | 1528.4 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1495.4 | 1512.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1465.5 | 1432.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1497.8 | 1625.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -29.3 | +20.2 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Acassuso last-5 Elo change: -29.3; CA Estudiantes last-5 Elo change: +20.2.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Acassuso | CA Estudiantes |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 7% | 67% |
| Attack | 0% | 56% |
| Defense | 22% | 67% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 3 | 0.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.10
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
54%
FT probability
2.5+
38%
FT probability
3.5+
27%
FT probability
BTTS
46%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-5
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Acassuso | CA Estudiantes | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 4 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 9 |
| Wins | 50% | 20% | 33% | 25% | 40% | 33% |
| Draws | 0% | 20% | 11% | 25% | 0% | 11% |
| Loses | 50% | 60% | 56% | 50% | 60% | 56% |
AcassusoWWWLLLLLD
CA EstudiantesLLLLLWWWD
League goals
| Metric | Acassuso | CA Estudiantes | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 5 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 5 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| GA total | 4 | 6 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Acassuso | CA Estudiantes | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 33% | 67% | 33% | 56% |
| 1.5 | 33% | 33% | 11% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 22% | 11% | 11% | 11% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Acassuso | CA Estudiantes | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | Acassuso | CA Estudiantes |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Acassuso | CA Estudiantes |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 3 |
| Draws | 0 | 0 |
| Losses | 5 | 5 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 2-3 | 1-0 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 2-0 | 0-2 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Acassuso | CA Estudiantes |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 9% | 91% |
| Att | 0% | 100% |
| Def | 30% | 70% |
| Poisson Distribution | 52% | 48% |
| H2h | 25% | 75% |
| Goals | 40% | 60% |
| Total | 31.2% | 68.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home3.50 @ William Hill
Draw2.80 @ Unibet
Away2.49 @ Pinnacle
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.53.40 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.36 @ Unibet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.50 @ Bet365
No1.53 @ William Hill
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League standings
Loading standings…