Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 20:00 •
Estadio Juan Alberto Garcia
Expected Goals
1.44 (league 1.05)
1.56 (league 0.67)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 34.8% | 24.3% | 40.1% |
best score tips
1 - 1
11.2%
1 - 2
8.7%
2 - 1
8.0%
Score & goals probability table
| Atletico Mitre | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Chaco For Ever | 0 | 5.0% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 7.2% | 11.2% | 8.7% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 0.6% | |
| 2 | 5.2% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Chaco For Ever carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 38 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Chaco For Ever -7.9, Atletico Mitre -17.8.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Chaco For Ever
vs
Atletico Mitre
Elo gapChaco For Ever +38
Home / draw / away41% / 26% / 33%
Expected home share55%
Combined Elo2922.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2922.1
Elo home share
55%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Chaco For Ever | Atletico Mitre |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1462.4 | 1459.7 |
| Form Elo | 1446.7 | 1450.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1512.2 | 1480.5 |
| Attack Elo | 1434.9 | 1422.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1527.1 | 1546.1 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -7.9 | -17.8 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Chaco For Ever last-5 Elo change: -7.9; Atletico Mitre last-5 Elo change: -17.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Chaco For Ever | Atletico Mitre |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 20% |
| Attack | 36% | 36% |
| Defense | 55% | 36% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 4 | 0.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.70
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
64%
FT probability
2.5+
45%
FT probability
3.5+
32%
FT probability
BTTS
65%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
3-5
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Chaco For Ever | Atletico Mitre | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 4 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 9 |
| Wins | 25% | 0% | 11% | 25% | 0% | 11% |
| Draws | 50% | 20% | 33% | 25% | 80% | 56% |
| Loses | 25% | 80% | 56% | 50% | 20% | 33% |
Chaco For EverLDLLDLLWD
Atletico MitreLWDDDDLDL
League goals
| Metric | Chaco For Ever | Atletico Mitre | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 6 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| GF avg | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| GA total | 5 | 9 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 10 |
| GA avg | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Chaco For Ever | Atletico Mitre | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 56% | 78% | 67% | 67% |
| 1.5 | 33% | 67% | 11% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 11% | 0% | 11% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Chaco For Ever | Atletico Mitre | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
Penalties
| Metric | Chaco For Ever | Atletico Mitre |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 3 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Chaco For Ever | Atletico Mitre |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 4 |
| Losses | 2 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | — | 1-0 | — |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 2-0 | 1-3 | 2-1 |
| Goals For | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Chaco For Ever | Atletico Mitre |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 63% | 38% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 58% | 42% |
| Poisson Distribution | 51% | 49% |
| H2h | 29% | 71% |
| Goals | 33% | 67% |
| Total | 47.3% | 52.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.10 @ William Hill
Draw2.90 @ Bet365
Away4.05 @ Betano
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.40 @ William Hill
No1.55 @ Betano
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.88 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.40 @ Bet365
📊
League standings
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