Tue, Apr 28 2026 • 22:30 •
Estadio Arquitecto Ricardo Etcheverry
Expected Goals
0.23 (league 1.05)
1.17 (league 0.67)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 7.2% | 31.8% | 60.9% |
best score tips
0 - 1
28.9%
0 - 0
24.7%
0 - 2
16.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Almirante Brown | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Ferro Carril Oeste | 0 | 24.7% | 28.9% | 16.9% | 6.6% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 5.7% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Ferro Carril Oeste carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 64 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Ferro Carril Oeste +5.3, Almirante Brown -17.2.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Ferro Carril Oeste
vs
Almirante Brown
Elo gapFerro Carril Oeste +64
Home / draw / away46% / 23% / 31%
Expected home share59%
Combined Elo2966.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2966.5
Elo home share
59%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Ferro Carril Oeste | Almirante Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1497.7 | 1468.8 |
| Form Elo | 1507.2 | 1457.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1494.8 | 1479.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1415.3 | 1416.7 |
| Defense Elo | 1551.7 | 1546.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +5.3 | -17.2 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Ferro Carril Oeste last-5 Elo change: +5.3; Almirante Brown last-5 Elo change: -17.2.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Ferro Carril Oeste | Almirante Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 27% |
| Attack | 18% | 18% |
| Defense | 73% | 55% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 2 | 0.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
0.90
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.10
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
44%
FT probability
2.5+
31%
FT probability
3.5+
22%
FT probability
BTTS
53%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Ferro Carril Oeste | Almirante Brown | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 3 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 9 |
| Wins | 0% | 50% | 33% | 50% | 20% | 33% |
| Draws | 33% | 33% | 33% | 0% | 40% | 22% |
| Loses | 67% | 17% | 33% | 50% | 40% | 44% |
Ferro Carril OesteWDDLLWDLW
Almirante BrownDWWLDLLLW
League goals
| Metric | Ferro Carril Oeste | Almirante Brown | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 1 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| GF avg | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| GA total | 4 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| GA avg | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Ferro Carril Oeste | Almirante Brown | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 67% | 56% | 56% | 56% |
| 1.5 | 11% | 22% | 11% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Ferro Carril Oeste | Almirante Brown | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
Penalties
| Metric | Ferro Carril Oeste | Almirante Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Ferro Carril Oeste | Almirante Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | — | 0-2 | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 2-1 | 0-2 | 2-1 |
| Goals For | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Ferro Carril Oeste | Almirante Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 64% | 36% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 63% | 38% |
| Poisson Distribution | 19% | 81% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 49.3% | 50.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.80 @ William Hill
Draw3.04 @ Pinnacle
Away5.43 @ Pinnacle
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.75 @ Bet365
No1.45 @ Betano
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.53.10 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.36 @ Bet365
📊
League standings
Loading standings…