Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 18:30 •
Estadio Malvinas Argentinas
Expected Goals
0.40 (league 1.05)
1.56 (league 0.67)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 9.2% | 24.4% | 65.9% |
best score tips
0 - 1
21.9%
0 - 2
17.1%
0 - 0
14.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Los Andes | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| San Miguel | 0 | 14.1% | 21.9% | 17.1% | 8.9% | 3.5% | 1.1% |
| 1 | 5.7% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
San Miguel carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 25 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: San Miguel +14.8, Los Andes +12.4.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
San Miguel
vs
Los Andes
Elo gapSan Miguel +25
Home / draw / away39% / 27% / 34%
Expected home share54%
Combined Elo2912.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2912.3
Elo home share
54%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | San Miguel | Los Andes |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1451.3 | 1461 |
| Form Elo | 1467.1 | 1466.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1506.3 | 1467 |
| Attack Elo | 1376 | 1382 |
| Defense Elo | 1504.8 | 1603.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +14.8 | +12.4 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. San Miguel last-5 Elo change: +14.8; Los Andes last-5 Elo change: +12.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | San Miguel | Los Andes |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 67% |
| Attack | 27% | 45% |
| Defense | 45% | 91% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 1 | 0.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.60
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.70
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.10
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
47%
FT probability
2.5+
33%
FT probability
3.5+
24%
FT probability
BTTS
56%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
3-5
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | San Miguel | Los Andes | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 5 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| Wins | 60% | 0% | 33% | 17% | 67% | 33% |
| Draws | 20% | 75% | 44% | 50% | 33% | 44% |
| Loses | 20% | 25% | 22% | 33% | 0% | 22% |
San MiguelWDWDLDLWD
Los AndesDDLDWLWWD
League goals
| Metric | San Miguel | Los Andes | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 7 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| GF avg | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| GA total | 4 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | San Miguel | Los Andes | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 67% | 56% | 44% | 33% |
| 1.5 | 22% | 22% | 22% | 0% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 11% | 0% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | San Miguel | Los Andes | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 5 |
Penalties
| Metric | San Miguel | Los Andes |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | San Miguel | Los Andes |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 1 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | — | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 3-0 | 0-1 | — |
| Goals For | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
Model comparison
| Metric | San Miguel | Los Andes |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 33% | 67% |
| Att | 38% | 63% |
| Def | 14% | 86% |
| Poisson Distribution | 23% | 77% |
| H2h | 62% | 38% |
| Goals | 43% | 57% |
| Total | 35.5% | 64.7% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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