Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 18:30 •
Estadio Alfredo Beranger
Expected Goals
1.91 (league 1.05)
0.39 (league 0.67)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 73.0% | 19.0% | 6.6% |
best score tips
1 - 0
19.1%
2 - 0
18.3%
3 - 0
11.7%
Score & goals probability table
| Patronato | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Temperley | 0 | 10.0% | 3.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 19.1% | 7.5% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 18.3% | 7.1% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 11.7% | 4.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 5.6% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Temperley carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 117 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Temperley +14.0, Patronato -5.7.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Temperley
vs
Patronato
Elo gapTemperley +117
Home / draw / away54% / 18% / 28%
Expected home share66%
Combined Elo3075.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3075.3
Elo home share
66%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Temperley | Patronato |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1578.7 | 1496.6 |
| Form Elo | 1591 | 1489.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1536.2 | 1487.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1460 | 1400.2 |
| Defense Elo | 1628.3 | 1592.3 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +14.0 | -5.7 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Temperley last-5 Elo change: +14.0; Patronato last-5 Elo change: -5.7.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Temperley | Patronato |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 60% | 47% |
| Attack | 64% | 27% |
| Defense | 55% | 64% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 3 | 0.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
54%
FT probability
2.5+
38%
FT probability
3.5+
27%
FT probability
BTTS
48%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
3-6
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Temperley | Patronato | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 3 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 9 |
| Wins | 67% | 17% | 33% | 25% | 20% | 22% |
| Draws | 33% | 67% | 56% | 25% | 40% | 33% |
| Loses | 0% | 17% | 11% | 50% | 40% | 44% |
TemperleyDWLDWWDDD
PatronatoDLDLWLLWD
League goals
| Metric | Temperley | Patronato | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 6 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| GF avg | 2.0 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| GA total | 4 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 9 |
| GA avg | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Temperley | Patronato | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 56% | 44% | 33% | 44% |
| 1.5 | 22% | 11% | 11% | 44% |
| 2.5 | 11% | 11% | 0% | 11% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Temperley | Patronato | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | Temperley | Patronato |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Temperley | Patronato |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-1 | 0-1 | 2-0 | 0-1 |
| Biggest losses | — | 1-0 | 0-2 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Temperley | Patronato |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 56% | 44% |
| Att | 70% | 30% |
| Def | 44% | 56% |
| Poisson Distribution | 84% | 16% |
| H2h | 60% | 40% |
| Goals | 54% | 46% |
| Total | 61.3% | 38.7% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.38 @ Pinnacle
Draw2.75 @ Bet365
Away4.71 @ Pinnacle
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.75 @ Bet365
No1.56 @ Unibet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.53.64 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.28 @ Bet365
📊
League standings
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