Sun, May 3 2026 • 18:30 •
Estadio Fragata Presidente Sarmiento
Expected Goals
1.39 (league 1.04)
0.60 (league 0.67)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 55.8% | 27.7% | 16.1% |
best score tips
1 - 0
19.0%
0 - 0
13.7%
2 - 0
13.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Chaco For Ever | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Almirante Brown | 0 | 13.7% | 8.2% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 19.0% | 11.4% | 3.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 13.2% | 7.9% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 6.1% | 3.7% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Almirante Brown carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 43 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Almirante Brown -17.2, Chaco For Ever -7.4.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Almirante Brown
vs
Chaco For Ever
Elo gapAlmirante Brown +43
Home / draw / away42% / 25% / 33%
Expected home share56%
Combined Elo2929.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2929.4
Elo home share
56%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Almirante Brown | Chaco For Ever |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1468.8 | 1460.6 |
| Form Elo | 1457.9 | 1445.7 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1494.1 | 1463.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1416.7 | 1433.2 |
| Defense Elo | 1546.6 | 1526.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -17.2 | -7.4 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Almirante Brown last-5 Elo change: -17.2; Chaco For Ever last-5 Elo change: -7.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Almirante Brown | Chaco For Ever |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 33% |
| Attack | 33% | 67% |
| Defense | 17% | 17% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 4 | 0.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.60
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.80
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
57%
FT probability
2.5+
40%
FT probability
3.5+
29%
FT probability
BTTS
56%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-5
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Almirante Brown | Chaco For Ever | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 4 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 10 |
| Wins | 50% | 20% | 33% | 20% | 0% | 10% |
| Draws | 0% | 40% | 22% | 60% | 20% | 40% |
| Loses | 50% | 40% | 44% | 20% | 80% | 50% |
Almirante BrownDWWLDLLLW
Chaco For EverLDLLDLLWDD
League goals
| Metric | Almirante Brown | Chaco For Ever | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 3 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 9 |
| GF avg | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.9 |
| GA total | 4 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 15 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Almirante Brown | Chaco For Ever | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 56% | 56% | 60% | 80% |
| 1.5 | 11% | 33% | 30% | 60% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Almirante Brown | Chaco For Ever | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
Penalties
| Metric | Almirante Brown | Chaco For Ever |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 3 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 3 |
Streaks
| Metric | Almirante Brown | Chaco For Ever |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 3 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-1 | 0-1 | 2-0 | — |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 2-1 | 1-2 | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Almirante Brown | Chaco For Ever |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 44% | 56% |
| Att | 33% | 67% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 70% | 30% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 67% | 33% |
| Total | 52.3% | 47.7% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.20 @ William Hill
Draw2.80 @ Betfair
Away4.10 @ Dafabet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.62 @ Bet365
No1.47 @ Betano
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.53.40 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.33 @ Bet365
📊
League standings
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