Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 16:10 •
Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium
Expected Goals
3.28 (league 1.47)
0.58 (league 1.37)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 76.4% | 8.5% | 3.6% |
best score tips
3 - 0
12.3%
2 - 0
11.3%
4 - 0
10.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Al Baten | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Abha | 0 | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 6.9% | 4.0% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 11.3% | 6.6% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 12.4% | 7.2% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 10.1% | 5.9% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 6.6% | 3.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Abha carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 355 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Abha +33.1, Al Baten -12.0.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Abha
vs
Al Baten
Elo gapAbha +355
Home / draw / away73% / 18% / 9%
Expected home share89%
Combined Elo3034.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3034.3
Elo home share
89%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Abha | Al Baten |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1677.1 | 1357.2 |
| Form Elo | 1694.4 | 1350 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1560.7 | 1436.6 |
| Attack Elo | 1627.2 | 1439.2 |
| Defense Elo | 1620.7 | 1307.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +33.1 | -12.0 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Abha last-5 Elo change: +33.1; Al Baten last-5 Elo change: -12.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Abha | Al Baten |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 100% | 27% |
| Attack | 60% | 53% |
| Defense | 80% | 20% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 12 | 2.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.20
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.10
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.10
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
87%
FT probability
2.5+
61%
FT probability
3.5+
44%
FT probability
BTTS
80%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Abha | Al Baten | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 15 | 30 | 15 | 15 | 30 |
| Wins | 73% | 87% | 80% | 20% | 7% | 13% |
| Draws | 20% | 13% | 17% | 13% | 27% | 20% |
| Loses | 7% | 0% | 3% | 67% | 67% | 67% |
AbhaDWLWWWWWWDWDWWWWWWWWWWWDDWWWWW
Al BatenLLLDLDLLLDLDLLLLLDWLLWLWLLLDWL
League goals
| Metric | Abha | Al Baten | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 31 | 31 | 62 | 19 | 15 | 34 |
| GF avg | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 12 | 11 | 23 | 27 | 34 | 61 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 2.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Abha | Al Baten | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 97% | 63% | 83% | 100% |
| 1.5 | 80% | 10% | 23% | 57% |
| 2.5 | 27% | 3% | 7% | 23% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 17% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Abha | Al Baten | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
Penalties
| Metric | Abha | Al Baten |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 9 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 9 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Abha | Al Baten |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 11 | 1 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 5 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | 0-3 | 3-1 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | 2-3 | — | 1-4 | 5-1 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Abha | Al Baten |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 79% | 21% |
| Att | 53% | 47% |
| Def | 80% | 20% |
| Poisson Distribution | 84% | 16% |
| H2h | 71% | 29% |
| Goals | 58% | 42% |
| Total | 70.8% | 29.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.37 @ Unibet
Draw5.61 @ Pinnacle
Away9.00 @ BetVictor
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.49 @ Unibet
Under 2.52.78 @ Pinnacle
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.73 @ Betfair
No2.05 @ Betfair
📊
League standings
Loading standings…