Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 21:00 •
Estadio Winston Pineda
Expected Goals
1.43 (league 1.46)
1.90 (league 0.75)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 28.8% | 22.3% | 47.2% |
best score tips
1 - 1
9.7%
1 - 2
9.2%
2 - 1
7.0%
Score & goals probability table
| Antigua GFC | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Achuapa | 0 | 3.6% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 5.1% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 5.8% | 2.8% | 1.1% | |
| 2 | 3.7% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 0.8% | |
| 3 | 1.8% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away strong edge
Antigua GFC carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 124 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Achuapa -24.0, Antigua GFC +22.8.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Achuapa
vs
Antigua GFC
Elo gapAntigua GFC +124
Home / draw / away27% / 18% / 55%
Expected home share33%
Combined Elo3007.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3007.6
Elo home share
33%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Achuapa | Antigua GFC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1424.3 | 1583.3 |
| Form Elo | 1394.1 | 1596.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1506.2 | 1497.5 |
| Attack Elo | 1386.1 | 1634.2 |
| Defense Elo | 1479.4 | 1544.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -24.0 | +22.8 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Achuapa last-5 Elo change: -24.0; Antigua GFC last-5 Elo change: +22.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Achuapa | Antigua GFC |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 20% | 80% |
| Attack | 24% | 76% |
| Defense | 35% | 65% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 13 | 2.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 11 | 2.2 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.70
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
74%
FT probability
2.5+
52%
FT probability
3.5+
37%
FT probability
BTTS
67%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-5
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Achuapa | Antigua GFC | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 23 | 24 | 47 | 25 | 24 | 49 |
| Wins | 48% | 4% | 26% | 72% | 33% | 53% |
| Draws | 22% | 29% | 26% | 16% | 21% | 18% |
| Loses | 30% | 67% | 49% | 12% | 46% | 29% |
AchuapaDDWLDWLWLDLLLWWLLDDWLDWDDLLLWWWDWDDLLLLLLLLLWLL
Antigua GFCWWLWLWDWWDLWWLWLWDWWLWLWWWWLLDLDLDWLWDWDDWWLWWWLW
League goals
| Metric | Achuapa | Antigua GFC | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 32 | 9 | 41 | 49 | 31 | 80 |
| GF avg | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| GA total | 25 | 40 | 65 | 18 | 36 | 54 |
| GA avg | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.1 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Achuapa | Antigua GFC | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 55% | 74% | 86% | 59% |
| 1.5 | 23% | 40% | 51% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 6% | 17% | 14% | 12% |
| 3.5 | 2% | 4% | 4% | 4% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Achuapa | Antigua GFC | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 7 | 5 | 12 | 12 | 8 | 20 |
| Failed to score | 5 | 16 | 21 | 2 | 5 | 7 |
Penalties
| Metric | Achuapa | Antigua GFC |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Achuapa | Antigua GFC |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 4 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 9 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | 0-1 | 8-2 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 5-1 | 1-2 | 5-1 |
| Goals For | 4 | 2 | 8 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 5 | 2 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Achuapa | Antigua GFC |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 20% | 80% |
| Att | 24% | 76% |
| Def | 35% | 65% |
| Poisson Distribution | 44% | 56% |
| H2h | 40% | 60% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 35.5% | 64.5% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home4.82 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.60 @ Marathonbet
Away1.86 @ Unibet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.05 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.81 @ Pinnacle
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.88 @ Marathonbet
No1.91 @ William Hill
📊
League standings
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