Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 18:30 •
Estadio Julio Humberto Grondona
Expected Goals
0.37 (league 1.07)
0.92 (league 0.87)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 14.6% | 37.7% | 47.7% |
best score tips
0 - 0
27.4%
0 - 1
25.2%
0 - 2
11.6%
Score & goals probability table
| Villa Dalmine | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Arsenal Sarandi | 0 | 27.4% | 25.2% | 11.6% | 3.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 10.3% | 9.4% | 4.3% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 1.9% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Arsenal Sarandi +54.4, Villa Dalmine +38.4.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
Arsenal Sarandi
vs
Villa Dalmine
Elo gapVilla Dalmine +1
Home / draw / away35% / 30% / 35%
Expected home share50%
Combined Elo3092.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3092.2
Elo home share
50%
Match tone
Must Watch
| Metric | Arsenal Sarandi | Villa Dalmine |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1528.2 | 1564 |
| Form Elo | 1559.7 | 1587.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1521.5 | 1525.5 |
| Attack Elo | 1573 | 1484.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1527.5 | 1560.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +54.4 | +38.4 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Arsenal Sarandi last-5 Elo change: +54.4; Villa Dalmine last-5 Elo change: +38.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Arsenal Sarandi | Villa Dalmine |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 87% | 87% |
| Attack | 67% | 92% |
| Defense | 100% | 75% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 11 | 2.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.10
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
0.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
0.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
61%
FT probability
2.5+
43%
FT probability
3.5+
31%
FT probability
BTTS
56%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
3-5
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Arsenal Sarandi | Villa Dalmine | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 5 | 6 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 11 |
| Wins | 80% | 50% | 64% | 33% | 100% | 64% |
| Draws | 0% | 50% | 27% | 50% | 0% | 27% |
| Loses | 20% | 0% | 9% | 17% | 0% | 9% |
Arsenal SarandiDWDLWWWWWDW
Villa DalmineWLWDDWWWDWW
League goals
| Metric | Arsenal Sarandi | Villa Dalmine | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 10 | 8 | 18 | 6 | 10 | 16 |
| GF avg | 2.0 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| GA total | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 5 |
| GA avg | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Arsenal Sarandi | Villa Dalmine | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 82% | 36% | 82% | 36% |
| 1.5 | 45% | 0% | 45% | 9% |
| 2.5 | 27% | 0% | 9% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 9% | 0% | 9% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Arsenal Sarandi | Villa Dalmine | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | Arsenal Sarandi | Villa Dalmine |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Arsenal Sarandi | Villa Dalmine |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 5 | 3 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 1 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 0-4 | 2-0 | 1-4 |
| Biggest losses | 0-1 | — | 0-1 | — |
| Goals For | 3 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Arsenal Sarandi | Villa Dalmine |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 42% | 58% |
| Def | 100% | 0% |
| Poisson Distribution | 31% | 69% |
| H2h | 100% | 0% |
| Goals | 75% | 25% |
| Total | 49.5% | 50.5% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.15 @ Unibet
Draw3.05 @ Dafabet
Away4.30 @ Betano
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.70 @ 10Bet
Under 2.51.44 @ Bet365
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.38 @ Bet365
No1.60 @ William Hill
📊
League standings
Loading standings…