Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 18:30 •
Estadio Carlos Sacaan
Expected Goals
0.15 (league 1.07)
0.83 (league 0.87)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 6.4% | 42.4% | 51.2% |
best score tips
0 - 0
37.6%
0 - 1
31.2%
0 - 2
12.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Excursionistas | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Ituzaingó | 0 | 37.6% | 31.2% | 12.9% | 3.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 5.6% | 4.7% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Ituzaingó carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 31 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Ituzaingó -31.5, Excursionistas +21.5.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Ituzaingó
vs
Excursionistas
Elo gapItuzaingó +31
Home / draw / away40% / 26% / 34%
Expected home share54%
Combined Elo3000.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3000.3
Elo home share
54%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Ituzaingó | Excursionistas |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1498.2 | 1502.1 |
| Form Elo | 1464.2 | 1526 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1499.8 | 1485.1 |
| Attack Elo | 1424.3 | 1514.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1539.5 | 1532.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -31.5 | +21.5 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Ituzaingó last-5 Elo change: -31.5; Excursionistas last-5 Elo change: +21.5.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Ituzaingó | Excursionistas |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 7% | 33% |
| Attack | 25% | 25% |
| Defense | 25% | 67% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 3 | 0.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.60
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
46%
FT probability
2.5+
32%
FT probability
3.5+
23%
FT probability
BTTS
55%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
3-5
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Ituzaingó | Excursionistas | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 5 | 6 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 11 |
| Wins | 0% | 0% | 0% | 67% | 40% | 55% |
| Draws | 60% | 17% | 36% | 17% | 40% | 27% |
| Loses | 40% | 83% | 64% | 17% | 20% | 18% |
ItuzaingóLLDLDDLLLDL
ExcursionistasWWDWWWWLDDL
League goals
| Metric | Ituzaingó | Excursionistas | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 1 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| GF avg | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 3 | 14 | 17 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| GA avg | 0.6 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Ituzaingó | Excursionistas | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 36% | 73% | 82% | 55% |
| 1.5 | 9% | 45% | 27% | 0% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 36% | 0% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Ituzaingó | Excursionistas | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 5 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | Ituzaingó | Excursionistas |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Ituzaingó | Excursionistas |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 0 | 4 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | — | — | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-1 | 3-0 | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| Goals For | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Ituzaingó | Excursionistas |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 17% | 83% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 31% | 69% |
| Poisson Distribution | 17% | 83% |
| H2h | 62% | 38% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 37.8% | 62.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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