Sat, May 2 2026 • 18:30 •
Estadio de los Inmigrantes
Expected Goals
1.46 (league 1.07)
0.81 (league 0.87)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 52.3% | 26.6% | 20.7% |
best score tips
1 - 0
15.1%
1 - 1
12.2%
2 - 0
11.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Defensores Unidos | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Dock Sud | 0 | 10.3% | 8.3% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 15.1% | 12.2% | 4.9% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 11.1% | 8.9% | 3.6% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 5.4% | 4.4% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Dock Sud carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 69 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Dock Sud +0.4, Defensores Unidos +30.8.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Dock Sud
vs
Defensores Unidos
Elo gapDock Sud +69
Home / draw / away47% / 22% / 31%
Expected home share60%
Combined Elo2850.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2850.2
Elo home share
60%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Dock Sud | Defensores Unidos |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1441.9 | 1408.3 |
| Form Elo | 1443.8 | 1423.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1481.7 | 1440.6 |
| Attack Elo | 1415.7 | 1359.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1529 | 1468.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +0.4 | +30.8 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Dock Sud last-5 Elo change: +0.4; Defensores Unidos last-5 Elo change: +30.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Dock Sud | Defensores Unidos |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 53% |
| Attack | 83% | 100% |
| Defense | 0% | 50% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 3 | 0.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.20
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
57%
FT probability
2.5+
40%
FT probability
3.5+
29%
FT probability
BTTS
65%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
3-6
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Dock Sud | Defensores Unidos | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 6 | 6 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| Wins | 33% | 0% | 17% | 33% | 0% | 17% |
| Draws | 33% | 50% | 42% | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Loses | 33% | 50% | 42% | 17% | 50% | 33% |
Dock SudDLLDLWDLDDWL
Defensores UnidosDLDLDLDWDWLD
League goals
| Metric | Dock Sud | Defensores Unidos | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 8 | 3 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 11 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| GA total | 6 | 7 | 13 | 4 | 7 | 11 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 0.9 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Dock Sud | Defensores Unidos | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 58% | 67% | 67% | 75% |
| 1.5 | 25% | 25% | 25% | 17% |
| 2.5 | 8% | 17% | 0% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Dock Sud | Defensores Unidos | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
Penalties
| Metric | Dock Sud | Defensores Unidos |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Dock Sud | Defensores Unidos |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 1 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | — | 2-0 | — |
| Biggest losses | 1-3 | 2-0 | 1-2 | 1-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Dock Sud | Defensores Unidos |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 38% | 62% |
| Att | 45% | 55% |
| Def | 33% | 67% |
| Poisson Distribution | 68% | 32% |
| H2h | 20% | 80% |
| Goals | 27% | 73% |
| Total | 38.5% | 61.5% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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