Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 18:30 •
1 de abril
Expected Goals
0.28 (league 1.08)
1.16 (league 0.90)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 8.9% | 32.1% | 58.9% |
best score tips
0 - 1
27.6%
0 - 0
23.8%
0 - 2
15.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Deportivo Español | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Lujan | 0 | 23.8% | 27.6% | 15.9% | 6.1% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 6.6% | 7.7% | 4.4% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Lujan carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 77 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Lujan -12.1, Deportivo Español +11.2.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Lujan
vs
Deportivo Español
Elo gapLujan +77
Home / draw / away48% / 21% / 31%
Expected home share61%
Combined Elo3073.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3073.5
Elo home share
61%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Lujan | Deportivo Español |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1557.7 | 1515.8 |
| Form Elo | 1541.7 | 1517.1 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1525.5 | 1495.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1448.8 | 1414.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1647.2 | 1621.3 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -12.1 | +11.2 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Lujan last-5 Elo change: -12.1; Deportivo Español last-5 Elo change: +11.2.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Lujan | Deportivo Español |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 40% |
| Attack | 75% | 100% |
| Defense | 0% | 0% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.70
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
54%
FT probability
2.5+
38%
FT probability
3.5+
27%
FT probability
BTTS
58%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Lujan | Deportivo Español | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 5 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| Wins | 0% | 33% | 13% | 25% | 0% | 13% |
| Draws | 40% | 67% | 50% | 50% | 75% | 63% |
| Loses | 60% | 0% | 38% | 25% | 25% | 25% |
LujanLDDLWLDD
Deportivo EspañolLDDDDDWL
League goals
| Metric | Lujan | Deportivo Español | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 1 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 9 |
| GF avg | 0.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 4 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 9 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.1 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Lujan | Deportivo Español | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 38% | 75% | 75% | 63% |
| 1.5 | 13% | 13% | 25% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 13% | 0% | 13% | 13% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Lujan | Deportivo Español | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | Lujan | Deportivo Español |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Lujan | Deportivo Español |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 1 |
| Draws | 2 | 5 |
| Losses | 1 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | — | 2-3 | 2-0 | — |
| Biggest losses | 0-1 | — | 1-2 | 4-3 |
| Goals For | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Lujan | Deportivo Español |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 45% | 55% |
| Att | 30% | 70% |
| Def | 60% | 40% |
| Poisson Distribution | 25% | 75% |
| H2h | 15% | 85% |
| Goals | 30% | 70% |
| Total | 34.2% | 65.8% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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