Expected Goals
0.37 (league 1.08)
1.16 (league 0.90)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 11.8% | 32.1% | 56.0% |
best score tips
0 - 1
25.1%
0 - 0
21.7%
0 - 2
14.5%
Score & goals probability table
| Centro Español | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Estrella Del Sur | 0 | 21.7% | 25.1% | 14.5% | 5.6% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 8.0% | 9.3% | 5.4% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Estrella Del Sur carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 40 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Estrella Del Sur +4.8, Centro Español +12.6.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Estrella Del Sur
vs
Centro Español
Elo gapEstrella Del Sur +40
Home / draw / away42% / 25% / 33%
Expected home share56%
Combined Elo3054.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3054.6
Elo home share
56%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Estrella Del Sur | Centro Español |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1529.8 | 1524.8 |
| Form Elo | 1524.7 | 1531.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1496.9 | 1502.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1481.2 | 1555.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1556.8 | 1556.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +4.8 | +12.6 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Estrella Del Sur last-5 Elo change: +4.8; Centro Español last-5 Elo change: +12.6.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Estrella Del Sur | Centro Español |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 53% | 53% |
| Attack | 100% | 100% |
| Defense | 0% | 0% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.10
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
56%
FT probability
2.5+
40%
FT probability
3.5+
28%
FT probability
BTTS
52%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Estrella Del Sur | Centro Español | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 4 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| Wins | 25% | 50% | 38% | 25% | 50% | 38% |
| Draws | 50% | 25% | 38% | 50% | 25% | 38% |
| Loses | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% |
Estrella Del SurWLDWWDDL
Centro EspañolWLDWLDDW
League goals
| Metric | Estrella Del Sur | Centro Español | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 3 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 11 |
| GF avg | 0.8 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| GA total | 3 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.8 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Estrella Del Sur | Centro Español | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 75% | 63% | 50% | 50% |
| 1.5 | 38% | 25% | 25% | 13% |
| 2.5 | 13% | 13% | 25% | 13% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 25% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 13% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Estrella Del Sur | Centro Español | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
Penalties
| Metric | Estrella Del Sur | Centro Español |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Estrella Del Sur | Centro Español |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 1 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 1 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | 1-3 | 5-1 | 1-4 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 3-2 | 1-3 | 1-0 |
| Goals For | 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Estrella Del Sur | Centro Español |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 45% | 55% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 31% | 69% |
| H2h | 80% | 20% |
| Goals | 60% | 40% |
| Total | 52.7% | 47.3% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.36 @ Dafabet
Draw2.90 @ Unibet
Away3.25 @ Bet365
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.53.00 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.50 @ Unibet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.50 @ Bet365
No1.73 @ Unibet
📊
League standings
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