Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 18:30 •
Estadio Beto Larrosa
Expected Goals
0.93 (league 1.08)
1.33 (league 0.90)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 25.9% | 27.9% | 45.9% |
best score tips
0 - 1
13.9%
1 - 1
12.9%
0 - 0
10.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Mercedes | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Sacachispas | 0 | 10.4% | 13.9% | 9.3% | 4.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 9.7% | 12.9% | 8.6% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 4.5% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Sacachispas carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 37 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Sacachispas +4.2, Mercedes +3.1.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Sacachispas
vs
Mercedes
Elo gapSacachispas +37
Home / draw / away41% / 26% / 33%
Expected home share55%
Combined Elo3000.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3000.6
Elo home share
55%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Sacachispas | Mercedes |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1501.5 | 1499.1 |
| Form Elo | 1500.2 | 1506 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1488.5 | 1499.1 |
| Attack Elo | 1461.8 | 1406.7 |
| Defense Elo | 1566.3 | 1575.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +4.2 | +3.1 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Sacachispas last-5 Elo change: +4.2; Mercedes last-5 Elo change: +3.1.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Sacachispas | Mercedes |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 60% | 40% |
| Attack | 100% | 50% |
| Defense | 0% | 25% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 12 | 2.4 | 2 | 0.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 3 | 0.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.80
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
66%
FT probability
2.5+
46%
FT probability
3.5+
33%
FT probability
BTTS
57%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Sacachispas | Mercedes | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 4 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| Wins | 75% | 50% | 63% | 50% | 25% | 38% |
| Draws | 0% | 0% | 0% | 25% | 50% | 38% |
| Loses | 25% | 50% | 38% | 25% | 25% | 25% |
SacachispasLWWWWLLW
MercedesWWLDLDWD
League goals
| Metric | Sacachispas | Mercedes | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 8 | 7 | 15 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| GF avg | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| GA total | 6 | 5 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| GA avg | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Sacachispas | Mercedes | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 75% | 63% | 50% | 38% |
| 1.5 | 50% | 50% | 13% | 13% |
| 2.5 | 25% | 25% | 0% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 13% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Sacachispas | Mercedes | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
Penalties
| Metric | Sacachispas | Mercedes |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Sacachispas | Mercedes |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 2 |
| Draws | 0 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | 0-5 | 1-0 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 3-0 | 0-2 | 1-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 5 | 1 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Sacachispas | Mercedes |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 60% | 40% |
| Att | 86% | 14% |
| Def | 30% | 70% |
| Poisson Distribution | 50% | 50% |
| H2h | 0% | 0% |
| Goals | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 56.5% | 43.5% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.92 @ Unibet
Draw3.10 @ Betfair
Away4.61 @ 1xBet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.62 @ 10Bet
Under 2.51.49 @ Unibet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.38 @ Bet365
No1.68 @ Unibet
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League standings
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