Expected Goals
0.60 (league 1.08)
0.44 (league 0.91)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 32.7% | 45.2% | 22.1% |
best score tips
0 - 0
35.2%
1 - 0
21.2%
0 - 1
15.5%
Score & goals probability table
| Juventud Unida | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Mercedes | 0 | 35.2% | 15.5% | 3.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 6.4% | 2.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Mercedes carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 98 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Mercedes +2.7, Juventud Unida -28.6.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Mercedes
vs
Juventud Unida
Elo gapMercedes +98
Home / draw / away52% / 19% / 29%
Expected home share64%
Combined Elo2938.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2938.6
Elo home share
64%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Mercedes | Juventud Unida |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1500.9 | 1437.7 |
| Form Elo | 1508.1 | 1415.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1494.6 | 1506.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1400.3 | 1385.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1585.3 | 1546.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +2.7 | -28.6 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Mercedes last-5 Elo change: +2.7; Juventud Unida last-5 Elo change: -28.6.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Mercedes | Juventud Unida |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 20% |
| Attack | 20% | 100% |
| Defense | 60% | 0% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 1 | 0.2 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 9 | 1.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.80
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
43%
FT probability
2.5+
30%
FT probability
3.5+
21%
FT probability
BTTS
42%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Mercedes | Juventud Unida | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 4 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 9 |
| Wins | 50% | 20% | 33% | 0% | 25% | 11% |
| Draws | 25% | 60% | 44% | 40% | 50% | 44% |
| Loses | 25% | 20% | 22% | 60% | 25% | 44% |
MercedesWWLDLDWDD
Juventud UnidaWLDLLDDDL
League goals
| Metric | Mercedes | Juventud Unida | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| GF avg | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| GA total | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 11 |
| GA avg | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Mercedes | Juventud Unida | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 44% | 33% | 44% | 67% |
| 1.5 | 11% | 11% | 22% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 22% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Mercedes | Juventud Unida | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
Penalties
| Metric | Mercedes | Juventud Unida |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Mercedes | Juventud Unida |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 3 |
| Losses | 1 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 1-0 | 0-2 | — | 0-1 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 1-0 | 2-3 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Mercedes | Juventud Unida |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 67% | 33% |
| Att | 17% | 83% |
| Def | 82% | 18% |
| Poisson Distribution | 65% | 35% |
| H2h | 7% | 93% |
| Goals | 15% | 85% |
| Total | 42.2% | 57.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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