Puerto Nuevo vs Leandro N. Alem

Primera C — Argentina

Sun, May 3 2026 • 18:30 • Venue TBA

Not Started

Puerto Nuevo

—

Leandro N. Alem

Expected Goals

2.77 (league 1.08) 2.80 (league 0.91)

1x2 probabilities

home	draw	away
34.9%	17.1%	35.6%

best score tips

2 - 2

5.7%

2 - 3

5.3%

3 - 2

5.3%

Score & goals probability table

		Leandro N. Alem
		0	1	2	3	4	5
Puerto Nuevo	0	0.4%	1.1%	1.5%	1.4%	1.0%	0.5%
	1	1.1%	2.9%	4.1%	3.9%	2.7%	1.5%
	2	1.5%	4.1%	5.7%	5.3%	3.7%	2.1%
	3	1.3%	3.8%	5.3%	4.9%	3.5%	1.9%
	4	0.9%	2.6%	3.7%	3.4%	2.4%	1.3%
	5	0.5%	1.5%	2.0%	1.9%	1.3%	0.7%

FootyWow Elo verdict

Balanced Elo outlook

Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Puerto Nuevo +24.4, Leandro N. Alem -45.0.

Thin confidence Upset risk: High Elo standalone

Puerto Nuevo Elo 1434.3 · +24.4

Leandro N. Alem Elo 1461.3 · -45.0

Elo gapPuerto Nuevo +8

Home / draw / away36% / 29% / 35%

Expected home share51%

Combined Elo2895.6

Deep Elo analysisOpen

Structural edge Balanced Elo outlook

Confidence band Thin confidence

Upset risk High

Model agreement Elo standalone

Combined Elo 2895.6

Elo home share 51%

Match tone Good Watch

Metric	Puerto Nuevo	Leandro N. Alem
Overall Elo	1434.3	1461.3
Form Elo	1452.1	1441.6
Home / Away Elo	1451	1514.4
Attack Elo	1415.9	1441.1
Defense Elo	1472.7	1465.8
Last 5 Elo change	+24.4	-45.0

The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Puerto Nuevo last-5 Elo change: +24.4; Leandro N. Alem last-5 Elo change: -45.0.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

Metric	Puerto Nuevo	Leandro N. Alem
Played	5	5
Form	47%	13%
Attack	67%	33%
Defense	56%	0%
Goals For (tot \| avg)	6 \| 1.2	3 \| 0.6
Goals Against (tot \| avg)	4 \| 0.8	11 \| 2.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.10

Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.80

Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.00

Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.00

Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

85%

FT probability

2.5+

60%

FT probability

3.5+

43%

FT probability

BTTS

82%

FT probability

Yellow Cards

Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric	Puerto Nuevo			Leandro N. Alem
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Played	3	6	9	5	4	9
Wins	0%	33%	22%	20%	25%	22%
Draws	67%	67%	67%	20%	50%	33%
Loses	33%	0%	11%	60%	25%	44%

Puerto NuevoWLDDDWDDD

Leandro N. AlemLWWDLDLLD

League goals

Metric	Puerto Nuevo			Leandro N. Alem
	H	A	T	H	A	T
GF total	4	5	9	4	6	10
GF avg	1.3	0.8	1.0	0.8	1.5	1.1
GA total	5	2	7	11	9	20
GA avg	1.7	0.3	0.8	2.2	2.3	2.2

Under/Over distribution (percent)

Line	Puerto Nuevo		Leandro N. Alem
	For	Against	For	Against
0.5	78%	56%	67%	100%
1.5	22%	22%	33%	56%
2.5	0%	0%	11%	22%
3.5	0%	0%	0%	22%
4.5	0%	0%	0%	22%

Clean sheets & failed to score

Metric	Puerto Nuevo			Leandro N. Alem
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Clean sheets	0	4	4	0	0	0
Failed to score	0	2	2	3	0	3

Penalties

Metric	Puerto Nuevo	Leandro N. Alem
Scored (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	1 \| 100.00%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	0	1

Streaks

Metric	Puerto Nuevo	Leandro N. Alem
Wins	1	2
Draws	3	1
Losses	1	2

Biggest results (H/A)

Metric	H	A	H	A
Biggest wins	—	0-2	3-2	1-2
Biggest losses	1-2	—	0-5	5-1
Goals For	2	2	3	2
Goals Against	2	1	5	5

Model comparison

Metric	Puerto Nuevo	Leandro N. Alem
Form	78%	22%
Att	67%	33%
Def	73%	27%
Poisson Distribution	58%	42%
H2h	60%	40%
Goals	44%	56%
Total	63.3%	36.7%

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

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League page • Country page • Puerto Nuevo vs Leandro N. Alem

Metric	Puerto Nuevo	Leandro N. Alem
Scored (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	1 \| 100.00%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	0	1