Sun, May 3 2026 • 05:00 •
Urawa Komaba Stadium
Expected Goals
2.03 (league 1.43)
0.37 (league 1.20)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 75.4% | 17.2% | 5.6% |
best score tips
2 - 0
18.8%
1 - 0
18.5%
3 - 0
12.7%
Score & goals probability table
| Vegalta Sendai W | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Urawa Reds W | 0 | 9.1% | 3.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 18.5% | 6.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 18.8% | 6.9% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 12.7% | 4.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 6.4% | 2.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Urawa Reds W carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 174 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Urawa Reds W -6.7, Vegalta Sendai W -19.9.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Urawa Reds W
vs
Vegalta Sendai W
Elo gapUrawa Reds W +174
Home / draw / away60% / 18% / 22%
Expected home share73%
Combined Elo3079.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3079.8
Elo home share
73%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Urawa Reds W | Vegalta Sendai W |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1609.6 | 1470.2 |
| Form Elo | 1611.9 | 1471.4 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1545.4 | 1483 |
| Attack Elo | 1670.6 | 1411.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1633.8 | 1475.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -6.7 | -19.9 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Urawa Reds W last-5 Elo change: -6.7; Vegalta Sendai W last-5 Elo change: -19.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Urawa Reds W | Vegalta Sendai W |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 60% | 27% |
| Attack | 65% | 18% |
| Defense | 65% | 65% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 11 | 2.2 | 3 | 0.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.50
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
73%
FT probability
2.5+
51%
FT probability
3.5+
36%
FT probability
BTTS
61%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Urawa Reds W | Vegalta Sendai W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 9 | 10 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 19 |
| Wins | 78% | 60% | 68% | 30% | 44% | 37% |
| Draws | 11% | 10% | 11% | 50% | 22% | 37% |
| Loses | 11% | 30% | 21% | 20% | 33% | 26% |
Urawa Reds WDWWWLWDWWWWWLWLWWWL
Vegalta Sendai WDDLWWDDDWLWWWDLWDLL
League goals
| Metric | Urawa Reds W | Vegalta Sendai W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 26 | 19 | 45 | 8 | 10 | 18 |
| GF avg | 2.9 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| GA total | 4 | 9 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 16 |
| GA avg | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Urawa Reds W | Vegalta Sendai W | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 89% | 42% | 58% | 63% |
| 1.5 | 63% | 26% | 32% | 21% |
| 2.5 | 42% | 0% | 5% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 26% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 16% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Urawa Reds W | Vegalta Sendai W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 5 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
Penalties
| Metric | Urawa Reds W | Vegalta Sendai W |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Urawa Reds W | Vegalta Sendai W |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 5 | 3 |
| Draws | 1 | 3 |
| Losses | 1 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-0 | 0-5 | 2-1 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 2-0 | 1-2 | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Urawa Reds W | Vegalta Sendai W |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 69% | 31% |
| Att | 79% | 21% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 82% | 18% |
| H2h | 80% | 20% |
| Goals | 80% | 20% |
| Total | 73.3% | 26.7% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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