Expected Goals
1.49 (league 1.40)
1.26 (league 1.23)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 42.3% | 25.4% | 31.7% |
best score tips
1 - 1
12.0%
1 - 0
9.6%
2 - 1
9.0%
Score & goals probability table
| Kayanza United | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Muzinga | 0 | 6.4% | 8.0% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 9.6% | 12.0% | 7.5% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 7.1% | 9.0% | 5.6% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 3.5% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Muzinga carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 56 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Muzinga -10.0, Kayanza United +19.0.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Muzinga
vs
Kayanza United
Elo gapMuzinga +56
Home / draw / away44% / 24% / 32%
Expected home share58%
Combined Elo2975.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2975.3
Elo home share
58%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Muzinga | Kayanza United |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1498.1 | 1477.2 |
| Form Elo | 1476.3 | 1483.1 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1475.9 | 1488.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1469.2 | 1514.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1501.9 | 1373.1 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -10.0 | +19.0 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Muzinga last-5 Elo change: -10.0; Kayanza United last-5 Elo change: +19.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Muzinga | Kayanza United |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 47% |
| Attack | 55% | 73% |
| Defense | 0% | 36% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 11 | 2.2 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
77%
FT probability
2.5+
54%
FT probability
3.5+
39%
FT probability
BTTS
72%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Muzinga | Kayanza United | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 14 | 28 | 14 | 14 | 28 |
| Wins | 29% | 43% | 36% | 29% | 21% | 25% |
| Draws | 36% | 29% | 32% | 43% | 36% | 39% |
| Loses | 36% | 29% | 32% | 29% | 43% | 36% |
MuzingaWDWWDLDDWLWWLLWDWWDLDLLDDLLW
Kayanza UnitedWDLDDWLLWDDLLLWDLWLLDWLDWDDD
League goals
| Metric | Muzinga | Kayanza United | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 15 | 17 | 32 | 21 | 16 | 37 |
| GF avg | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 20 | 16 | 36 | 18 | 26 | 44 |
| GA avg | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.6 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Muzinga | Kayanza United | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 79% | 79% | 75% | 75% |
| 1.5 | 32% | 32% | 39% | 43% |
| 2.5 | 4% | 11% | 14% | 14% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 7% | 4% | 11% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Muzinga | Kayanza United | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 7 |
Penalties
| Metric | Muzinga | Kayanza United |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Muzinga | Kayanza United |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 1 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-1 | 1-3 | 4-1 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 1-4 | 4-1 | 1-4 | 8-2 |
| Goals For | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Muzinga | Kayanza United |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 42% | 58% |
| Att | 43% | 57% |
| Def | 39% | 61% |
| Poisson Distribution | 52% | 48% |
| H2h | 13% | 88% |
| Goals | 25% | 75% |
| Total | 35.7% | 64.5% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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