Mon, Jan 5 2026 • 19:00 • Complexe Sportif de Fès
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.96 (league 1.27) 2.16 (league 1.04)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
47.1% 17.0% 25.7%
best score tips
2 - 2
6.1%
3 - 2
6.0%
2 - 1
5.6%
Score & goals probability table
Mozambique
0 1 2 3 4 5
Nigeria 0 0.6% 1.3% 1.4% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2%
1 1.8% 3.8% 4.1% 3.0% 1.6% 0.7%
2 2.6% 5.6% 6.1% 4.4% 2.4% 1.0%
3 2.6% 5.6% 6.0% 4.3% 2.3% 1.0%
4 1.9% 4.1% 4.5% 3.2% 1.7% 0.8%
5 1.1% 2.4% 2.6% 1.9% 1.0% 0.4%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricNigeriaMozambique
Played33
Form100%33%
Attack57%29%
Defense71%64%
Goals For (tot | avg)8 | 2.74 | 1.3
Goals Against (tot | avg)4 | 1.35 | 1.7

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

70%
FT probability

3.5+

50%
FT probability

BTTS

86%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Nigeria Mozambique
HATHAT
Played213123
Wins100%100%100%0%50%33%
Draws0%0%0%0%0%0%
Loses0%0%0%100%50%67%

Form: Nigeria: WWW • Mozambique: LWL

League goals

Metric Nigeria Mozambique
HATHAT
GF total538134
GF avg2.53.02.71.01.51.3
GA total314235
GA avg1.51.01.32.01.51.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineNigeriaMozambique
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.5100%100%67%100%
1.5100%33%33%67%
2.567%0%33%0%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricNigeriaMozambique
HATHAT
Clean sheets000000
Failed to score000011

Penalties

MetricNigeriaMozambique
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total01

Streaks

MetricNigeriaMozambique
Wins31
Draws00
Losses01

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-21-3—2-3
Biggest losses——1-21-0
Goals For3313
Goals Against2122

Model comparison

MetricNigeriaMozambique
Form75%25%
Att67%33%
Def56%44%
Poisson Distribution61%39%
H2h100%0%
Goals64%36%
Total64.6%35.4%

Advice: Combo Double chance : Nigeria or draw and +1.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.35 @ 188Bet
Draw5.61 @ 1xBet
Away11.50 @ Unibet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.99 @ 188Bet
Under 2.52.15 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.37 @ 188Bet
No1.70 @ William Hill
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Nigeria = 2.96 (league 1.27), Mozambique = 2.16 (league 1.04)

Mozambique
0 1 2 3 4 5
Nigeria 0 0.6% 1.3% 1.4% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2%
1 1.8% 3.8% 4.1% 3.0% 1.6% 0.7%
2 2.6% 5.6% 6.1% 4.4% 2.4% 1.0%
3 2.6% 5.6% 6.0% 4.3% 2.3% 1.0%
4 1.9% 4.1% 4.5% 3.2% 1.7% 0.8%
5 1.1% 2.4% 2.6% 1.9% 1.0% 0.4%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 47.1% · Draw 17.0% · Away win 25.7%

vtt 10 , vtd1