Fri, May 1 2026 • 11:00 •
Osteras IP
Expected Goals
1.51 (league 1.65)
0.37 (league 1.35)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 65.8% | 25.0% | 8.8% |
best score tips
1 - 0
23.0%
2 - 0
17.4%
0 - 0
15.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Lund | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Hässleholms IF | 0 | 15.3% | 5.7% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 23.0% | 8.6% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 8.7% | 3.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Hässleholms IF carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 129 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Hässleholms IF +8.6, Lund +31.4.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Hässleholms IF
vs
Lund
Elo gapHässleholms IF +129
Home / draw / away56% / 18% / 26%
Expected home share68%
Combined Elo3122.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3122.5
Elo home share
68%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Hässleholms IF | Lund |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1608 | 1514.5 |
| Form Elo | 1615 | 1551.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1544.6 | 1478 |
| Attack Elo | 1663.8 | 1519.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1607.9 | 1541.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +8.6 | +31.4 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Hässleholms IF last-5 Elo change: +8.6; Lund last-5 Elo change: +31.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Hässleholms IF | Lund |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 4 | 4 |
| Form | 67% | 67% |
| Attack | 77% | 38% |
| Defense | 62% | 85% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 10 | 2.5 | 5 | 1.3 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1.3 | 2 | 0.5 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
76%
FT probability
2.5+
53%
FT probability
3.5+
38%
FT probability
BTTS
63%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-2
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Hässleholms IF | Lund | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Wins | 50% | 50% | 50% | 100% | 0% | 50% |
| Draws | 50% | 50% | 50% | 0% | 100% | 50% |
| Loses | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Hässleholms IFWDWD
LundDWDW
League goals
| Metric | Hässleholms IF | Lund | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 5 | 5 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| GF avg | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| GA avg | 0.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Hässleholms IF | Lund | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 100% | 75% | 75% | 25% |
| 1.5 | 50% | 25% | 50% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 50% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Hässleholms IF | Lund | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Hässleholms IF | Lund |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Hässleholms IF | Lund |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 0 | 0 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 3-4 | 2-0 | — |
| Biggest losses | — | — | — | — |
| Goals For | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Hässleholms IF | Lund |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 67% | 33% |
| Def | 29% | 71% |
| Poisson Distribution | 83% | 17% |
| H2h | 40% | 60% |
| Goals | 46% | 54% |
| Total | 52.5% | 47.5% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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