Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 05:00 •
City Light Stadium
Expected Goals
1.13 (league 1.32)
1.43 (league 1.12)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 29.8% | 26.2% | 43.5% |
best score tips
1 - 1
12.5%
0 - 1
11.0%
1 - 2
8.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Avispa Fukuoka | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Fagiano Okayama | 0 | 7.7% | 11.0% | 7.9% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 8.7% | 12.5% | 8.9% | 4.3% | 1.5% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 4.9% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 1.9% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
Avispa Fukuoka carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 24 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Fagiano Okayama -6.6, Avispa Fukuoka +50.2.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Fagiano Okayama
vs
Avispa Fukuoka
Elo gapAvispa Fukuoka +24
Home / draw / away34% / 27% / 39%
Expected home share47%
Combined Elo2992.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2992.5
Elo home share
47%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Fagiano Okayama | Avispa Fukuoka |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1467 | 1525.5 |
| Form Elo | 1468.9 | 1539.1 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1459.6 | 1505.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1415 | 1491.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1487.1 | 1516.9 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -6.6 | +50.2 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Fagiano Okayama last-5 Elo change: -6.6; Avispa Fukuoka last-5 Elo change: +50.2.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Fagiano Okayama | Avispa Fukuoka |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 20% | 80% |
| Attack | 33% | 50% |
| Defense | 22% | 67% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 9 | 1.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 14 | 2.8 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.10
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
81%
FT probability
2.5+
57%
FT probability
3.5+
41%
FT probability
BTTS
76%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Fagiano Okayama | Avispa Fukuoka | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 5 | 6 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| Wins | 40% | 17% | 27% | 50% | 33% | 42% |
| Draws | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Loses | 60% | 83% | 73% | 50% | 67% | 58% |
Fagiano OkayamaLLLWWLWLLLL
Avispa FukuokaWLLLLLLWWWLW
League goals
| Metric | Fagiano Okayama | Avispa Fukuoka | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 5 | 8 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 14 |
| GF avg | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| GA total | 8 | 15 | 23 | 12 | 9 | 21 |
| GA avg | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.8 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Fagiano Okayama | Avispa Fukuoka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 91% | 91% | 75% | 83% |
| 1.5 | 27% | 64% | 33% | 58% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 27% | 8% | 17% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 18% | 0% | 8% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 9% | 0% | 8% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Fagiano Okayama | Avispa Fukuoka | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
Penalties
| Metric | Fagiano Okayama | Avispa Fukuoka |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Fagiano Okayama | Avispa Fukuoka |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 3 |
| Draws | 0 | 0 |
| Losses | 3 | 6 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-1 | 1-2 | 3-2 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | 1-4 | 5-1 | 1-5 | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Fagiano Okayama | Avispa Fukuoka |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 20% | 80% |
| Att | 40% | 60% |
| Def | 30% | 70% |
| Poisson Distribution | 45% | 55% |
| H2h | 15% | 85% |
| Goals | 33% | 67% |
| Total | 30.5% | 69.5% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.30 @ BetVictor
Draw3.28 @ Pinnacle
Away3.30 @ 10Bet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.42 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.58 @ Unibet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.02 @ Betano
No1.79 @ Unibet
📊
League standings
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