Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 05:00 •
IAI Stadium Nihondaira
Expected Goals
2.18 (league 1.32)
1.79 (league 1.12)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 44.9% | 20.4% | 31.3% |
best score tips
2 - 1
8.0%
1 - 1
7.4%
2 - 2
7.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Nagoya Grampus | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Shimizu S-pulse | 0 | 1.9% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 4.1% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.6% | |
| 2 | 4.5% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 0.7% | |
| 3 | 3.3% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.5% | |
| 4 | 1.8% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% | |
| 5 | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Shimizu S-pulse carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 52 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Shimizu S-pulse +32.1, Nagoya Grampus +21.7.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Shimizu S-pulse
vs
Nagoya Grampus
Elo gapShimizu S-pulse +52
Home / draw / away43% / 24% / 33%
Expected home share57%
Combined Elo3067.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3067.1
Elo home share
57%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Shimizu S-pulse | Nagoya Grampus |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1542 | 1525.1 |
| Form Elo | 1565.6 | 1535.1 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1511.9 | 1490 |
| Attack Elo | 1490.9 | 1546 |
| Defense Elo | 1551.9 | 1484.3 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +32.1 | +21.7 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Shimizu S-pulse last-5 Elo change: +32.1; Nagoya Grampus last-5 Elo change: +21.7.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Shimizu S-pulse | Nagoya Grampus |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 60% | 60% |
| Attack | 50% | 61% |
| Defense | 67% | 56% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 11 | 2.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.20
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.80
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
89%
FT probability
2.5+
62%
FT probability
3.5+
44%
FT probability
BTTS
80%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-2
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Shimizu S-pulse | Nagoya Grampus | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 4 | 7 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 11 |
| Wins | 75% | 29% | 45% | 67% | 40% | 55% |
| Draws | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Loses | 25% | 71% | 55% | 33% | 60% | 45% |
Shimizu S-pulseLLWLLWWWLWL
Nagoya GrampusWWLLWLWLWLW
League goals
| Metric | Shimizu S-pulse | Nagoya Grampus | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 7 | 8 | 15 | 10 | 10 | 20 |
| GF avg | 1.8 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| GA total | 4 | 10 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 17 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Shimizu S-pulse | Nagoya Grampus | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 73% | 82% | 91% | 73% |
| 1.5 | 45% | 36% | 45% | 55% |
| 2.5 | 18% | 9% | 27% | 27% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 9% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 9% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Shimizu S-pulse | Nagoya Grampus | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Shimizu S-pulse | Nagoya Grampus |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Shimizu S-pulse | Nagoya Grampus |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 2 |
| Draws | 0 | 0 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | 0-3 | 3-0 | 1-5 |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 2-0 | 0-3 | 3-2 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Shimizu S-pulse | Nagoya Grampus |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 45% | 55% |
| Def | 57% | 43% |
| Poisson Distribution | 55% | 45% |
| H2h | 38% | 62% |
| Goals | 40% | 60% |
| Total | 47.5% | 52.5% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.87 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.31 @ Pinnacle
Away2.60 @ Unibet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.02 @ Unibet
Under 2.51.85 @ Bet365
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.76 @ Unibet
No2.05 @ Betano
📊
League standings
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