J1 League — Japan
Wed, Apr 29 2026 • 05:00 • Fukuda Denshi Arena
Not Started

JEF United Chiba

—

Yokohama F. Marinos

Expected Goals
1.45 (league 1.32) 1.52 (league 1.12)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
35.9% 24.4% 38.8%
best score tips
1 - 1
11.3%
1 - 2
8.6%
2 - 1
8.2%
Score & goals probability table
Yokohama F. Marinos
0 1 2 3 4 5
JEF United Chiba 0 5.1% 7.8% 5.9% 3.0% 1.1% 0.3%
1 7.4% 11.3% 8.6% 4.4% 1.7% 0.5%
2 5.4% 8.2% 6.2% 3.2% 1.2% 0.4%
3 2.6% 4.0% 3.0% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2%
4 0.9% 1.4% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Home strong edge

JEF United Chiba carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 87 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: JEF United Chiba -24.3, Yokohama F. Marinos -14.4.

Strong confidence Upset risk: Low Elo standalone
JEF United Chiba Elo 1522 · -24.3
vs
Yokohama F. Marinos Elo 1469.8 · -14.4
Elo gapJEF United Chiba +87
Home / draw / away50% / 20% / 30%
Expected home share62%
Combined Elo2991.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Home strong edge
Confidence band Strong confidence
Upset risk Low
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 2991.8
Elo home share 62%
Match tone Tactical Watch
Metric JEF United Chiba Yokohama F. Marinos
Overall Elo15221469.8
Form Elo1505.21461.1
Home / Away Elo1530.81476.3
Attack Elo1530.51523.2
Defense Elo15381490.3
Last 5 Elo change-24.3-14.4

This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. JEF United Chiba last-5 Elo change: -24.3; Yokohama F. Marinos last-5 Elo change: -14.4.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricJEF United ChibaYokohama F. Marinos
Played55
Form20%20%
Attack33%39%
Defense50%50%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.27 | 1.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)9 | 1.89 | 1.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.20
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.20
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.50
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

80%
FT probability

2.5+

56%
FT probability

3.5+

40%
FT probability

BTTS

68%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2-2
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric JEF United Chiba Yokohama F. Marinos
HATHAT
Played65116511
Wins33%0%18%33%20%27%
Draws0%0%0%0%0%0%
Loses67%100%82%67%80%73%
JEF United ChibaLLLLWLLLWLL
Yokohama F. MarinosLLLWLWLWLLL

League goals

Metric JEF United Chiba Yokohama F. Marinos
HATHAT
GF total73109514
GF avg1.20.60.91.51.01.3
GA total1091912820
GA avg1.71.81.72.01.61.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineJEF United ChibaYokohama F. Marinos
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.564%100%55%82%
1.518%73%36%64%
2.59%0%18%36%
3.50%0%9%0%
4.50%0%9%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricJEF United ChibaYokohama F. Marinos
HATHAT
Clean sheets000112
Failed to score224145

Penalties

MetricJEF United ChibaYokohama F. Marinos
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total01

Streaks

MetricJEF United ChibaYokohama F. Marinos
Wins11
Draws00
Losses43

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-2—2-00-5
Biggest losses0-22-01-33-0
Goals For3135
Goals Against2233

Model comparison

MetricJEF United ChibaYokohama F. Marinos
Form50%50%
Att46%54%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution50%50%
H2h0%100%
Goals0%100%
Total49.0%51.0%
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

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League page • Country page • Venue page • JEF United Chiba vs Yokohama F. Marinos