Kashiwa Reysol vs FC Tokyo

J1 League — Japan

Wed, Apr 29 2026 • 07:00 • Sankyo Frontier Kashiwa Stadium

Not Started

Kashiwa Reysol

—

FC Tokyo

Expected Goals

0.84 (league 1.33) 1.43 (league 1.12)

1x2 probabilities

home	draw	away
22.2%	27.1%	50.4%

best score tips

0 - 1

14.7%

1 - 1

12.4%

0 - 2

10.5%

Score & goals probability table

		FC Tokyo
		0	1	2	3	4	5
Kashiwa Reysol	0	10.3%	14.7%	10.5%	5.0%	1.8%	0.5%
	1	8.7%	12.4%	8.9%	4.2%	1.5%	0.4%
	2	3.7%	5.2%	3.7%	1.8%	0.6%	0.2%
	3	1.0%	1.5%	1.0%	0.5%	0.2%	0.1%
	4	0.2%	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
	5	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

FootyWow Elo verdict

Balanced Elo outlook

Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Kashiwa Reysol -16.0, FC Tokyo +35.0.

Thin confidence Upset risk: High Elo standalone

Kashiwa Reysol Elo 1591.7 · -16.0

FC Tokyo Elo 1614 · +35.0

Elo gapKashiwa Reysol +13

Home / draw / away37% / 29% / 34%

Expected home share52%

Combined Elo3205.7

Deep Elo analysisOpen

Structural edge Balanced Elo outlook

Confidence band Thin confidence

Upset risk High

Model agreement Elo standalone

Combined Elo 3205.7

Elo home share 52%

Match tone Must Watch

Metric	Kashiwa Reysol	FC Tokyo
Overall Elo	1591.7	1614
Form Elo	1573.3	1641.6
Home / Away Elo	1551.2	1540.3
Attack Elo	1619.3	1560.4
Defense Elo	1600	1579.3
Last 5 Elo change	-16.0	+35.0

The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Kashiwa Reysol last-5 Elo change: -16.0; FC Tokyo last-5 Elo change: +35.0.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

Metric	Kashiwa Reysol	FC Tokyo
Played	5	5
Form	40%	60%
Attack	38%	69%
Defense	75%	69%
Goals For (tot \| avg)	6 \| 1.2	11 \| 2.2
Goals Against (tot \| avg)	4 \| 0.8	5 \| 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.30

Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.40

Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40

Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.60

Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

76%

FT probability

2.5+

54%

FT probability

3.5+

38%

FT probability

BTTS

69%

FT probability

Yellow Cards

1-2

Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric	Kashiwa Reysol			FC Tokyo
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Played	5	7	12	6	6	12
Wins	40%	29%	33%	67%	83%	75%
Draws	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Loses	60%	71%	67%	33%	17%	25%

Kashiwa ReysolLLLWLLWWWLLL

FC TokyoWWWLWWWLWLWW

League goals

Metric	Kashiwa Reysol			FC Tokyo
	H	A	T	H	A	T
GF total	7	8	15	12	12	24
GF avg	1.4	1.1	1.3	2.0	2.0	2.0
GA total	4	13	17	7	5	12
GA avg	0.8	1.9	1.4	1.2	0.8	1.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

Line	Kashiwa Reysol		FC Tokyo
	For	Against	For	Against
0.5	58%	75%	75%	83%
1.5	42%	42%	75%	17%
2.5	25%	8%	33%	0%
3.5	0%	8%	8%	0%
4.5	0%	8%	8%	0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

Metric	Kashiwa Reysol			FC Tokyo
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Clean sheets	2	1	3	1	1	2
Failed to score	2	3	5	2	1	3

Penalties

Metric	Kashiwa Reysol	FC Tokyo
Scored (total \| %)	1 \| 100.00%	3 \| 100.00%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	1	3

Streaks

Metric	Kashiwa Reysol	FC Tokyo
Wins	3	3
Draws	0	0
Losses	3	1

Biggest results (H/A)

Metric	H	A	H	A
Biggest wins	3-0	0-2	5-2	0-3
Biggest losses	1-2	5-3	0-2	1-0
Goals For	3	3	5	3
Goals Against	2	5	2	1

Model comparison

Metric	Kashiwa Reysol	FC Tokyo
Form	40%	60%
Att	35%	65%
Def	56%	44%
Poisson Distribution	39%	61%
H2h	93%	7%
Goals	73%	27%
Total	56.0%	44.0%

💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.36 @ Pinnacle

Draw3.43 @ Pinnacle

Away3.00 @ 10Bet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.01 @ Pinnacle

Under 2.51.85 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.75 @ William Hill

No2.00 @ William Hill

📊

League standings

Loading standings…

League page • Country page • Venue page • Kashiwa Reysol vs FC Tokyo

Metric	Kashiwa Reysol	FC Tokyo
Scored (total \| %)	1 \| 100.00%	3 \| 100.00%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	1	3