Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 01:30 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
1.38 (league 1.22)
0.99 (league 1.22)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 45.5% | 27.2% | 27.0% |
best score tips
1 - 0
12.9%
1 - 1
12.8%
0 - 0
9.3%
Score & goals probability table
| Municipal Limeño | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Inter | 0 | 9.3% | 9.3% | 4.6% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 12.9% | 12.8% | 6.3% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 8.9% | 8.8% | 4.4% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 4.1% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
Municipal Limeño carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 32 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Inter +30.8, Municipal Limeño +19.9.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Inter
vs
Municipal Limeño
Elo gapMunicipal Limeño +32
Home / draw / away33% / 26% / 41%
Expected home share45%
Combined Elo3093.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3093.9
Elo home share
45%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Inter | Municipal Limeño |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1513.4 | 1580.5 |
| Form Elo | 1527.1 | 1596.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1498.9 | 1520.1 |
| Attack Elo | 1469.3 | 1513.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1493.1 | 1608.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +30.8 | +19.9 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Inter last-5 Elo change: +30.8; Municipal Limeño last-5 Elo change: +19.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Inter | Municipal Limeño |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 60% | 67% |
| Attack | 78% | 89% |
| Defense | 44% | 44% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
71%
FT probability
2.5+
50%
FT probability
3.5+
35%
FT probability
BTTS
67%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Inter | Municipal Limeño | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 21 | 21 | 42 | 22 | 22 | 44 |
| Wins | 33% | 19% | 26% | 55% | 27% | 41% |
| Draws | 38% | 38% | 38% | 23% | 23% | 23% |
| Loses | 29% | 43% | 36% | 23% | 50% | 36% |
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Municipal LimeñoLDWLLWLWLWLDWLWLLDWLDWDLLWDDDLWWLWWWWLDLWWWD
League goals
| Metric | Inter | Municipal Limeño | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 25 | 22 | 47 | 35 | 25 | 60 |
| GF avg | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| GA total | 24 | 33 | 57 | 21 | 30 | 51 |
| GA avg | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Inter | Municipal Limeño | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 64% | 69% | 77% | 68% |
| 1.5 | 38% | 45% | 30% | 32% |
| 2.5 | 10% | 17% | 11% | 14% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 2% | 11% | 2% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 2% | 7% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Inter | Municipal Limeño | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 7 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 14 |
| Failed to score | 6 | 9 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 10 |
Penalties
| Metric | Inter | Municipal Limeño |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 6 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 6 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Inter | Municipal Limeño |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 4 |
| Draws | 4 | 3 |
| Losses | 3 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | 0-3 | 5-0 | 0-5 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 5-0 | 1-4 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Inter | Municipal Limeño |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 47% | 53% |
| Att | 47% | 53% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 55% | 45% |
| H2h | 13% | 88% |
| Goals | 33% | 67% |
| Total | 40.8% | 59.3% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.40 @ Betfair
Draw3.20 @ Betfair
Away3.13 @ Pinnacle
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.15 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.71 @ Pinnacle
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.80 @ Betfair
No1.96 @ Unibet
📊
League standings
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