Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 01:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
1.58 (league 1.22)
1.38 (league 1.22)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 41.6% | 24.4% | 33.2% |
best score tips
1 - 1
11.3%
2 - 1
8.9%
1 - 0
8.2%
Score & goals probability table
| FAS | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Firpo | 0 | 5.2% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 8.2% | 11.3% | 7.8% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 6.5% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 3.4% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Firpo carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 37 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Firpo -9.8, FAS +10.1.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Firpo
vs
FAS
Elo gapFirpo +37
Home / draw / away41% / 26% / 33%
Expected home share55%
Combined Elo3358.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3358.4
Elo home share
55%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Firpo | FAS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1680 | 1678.4 |
| Form Elo | 1674.6 | 1701.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1579.9 | 1570 |
| Attack Elo | 1689.4 | 1789 |
| Defense Elo | 1626.6 | 1613.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -9.8 | +10.1 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Firpo last-5 Elo change: -9.8; FAS last-5 Elo change: +10.1.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Firpo | FAS |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 67% | 87% |
| Attack | 67% | 100% |
| Defense | 56% | 67% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 15 | 3 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 3 | 0.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.70
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
86%
FT probability
2.5+
60%
FT probability
3.5+
43%
FT probability
BTTS
69%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Firpo | FAS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 24 | 23 | 47 | 22 | 22 | 44 |
| Wins | 71% | 65% | 68% | 82% | 50% | 66% |
| Draws | 17% | 17% | 17% | 9% | 32% | 20% |
| Loses | 13% | 17% | 15% | 9% | 18% | 14% |
FirpoWWDWWWDLWWWDWLDWWWWWWDWWWLWWDWDWWWLWLWLWWWWWWLD
FASWDWWWWLWDLDWWWWLDDWWLWWLDWDWDWWWWWWWWWLWWWDW
League goals
| Metric | Firpo | FAS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 39 | 54 | 93 | 52 | 47 | 99 |
| GF avg | 1.6 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.3 |
| GA total | 18 | 30 | 48 | 17 | 27 | 44 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Firpo | FAS | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 85% | 64% | 89% | 61% |
| 1.5 | 60% | 28% | 68% | 30% |
| 2.5 | 43% | 6% | 41% | 9% |
| 3.5 | 6% | 2% | 14% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 2% | 2% | 5% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Firpo | FAS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 13 | 4 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 17 |
| Failed to score | 5 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 5 |
Penalties
| Metric | Firpo | FAS |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 10 | 100.00% | 6 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 10 | 6 |
Streaks
| Metric | Firpo | FAS |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 6 | 9 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 1 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 6-2 | 1-4 | 4-0 | 0-8 |
| Biggest losses | 0-5 | 2-0 | 0-2 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 6 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| Goals Against | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Firpo | FAS |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 43% | 57% |
| Att | 29% | 71% |
| Def | 43% | 57% |
| Poisson Distribution | 55% | 45% |
| H2h | 60% | 40% |
| Goals | 59% | 41% |
| Total | 48.2% | 51.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.50 @ Betano
Draw3.20 @ Bet365
Away2.95 @ Dafabet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.80 @ William Hill
No2.08 @ Unibet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.05 @ Betfair
Under 2.51.85 @ Bet365
📊
League standings
Loading standings…