Ettan - Norra
— Sweden
Sat, May 2 2026 • 14:00 •
Tunavallen
Expected Goals
0.41 (league 1.83)
1.97 (league 1.53)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 6.7% | 18.4% | 73.3% |
best score tips
0 - 1
18.3%
0 - 2
17.9%
0 - 3
11.8%
Score & goals probability table
| FBK Karlstad | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| AFC Eskilstuna | 0 | 9.3% | 18.3% | 17.9% | 11.8% | 5.8% | 2.3% |
| 1 | 3.8% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 0.9% | |
| 2 | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
FBK Karlstad carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 28 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: AFC Eskilstuna -26.3, FBK Karlstad +12.5.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
AFC Eskilstuna
vs
FBK Karlstad
Elo gapFBK Karlstad +28
Home / draw / away34% / 27% / 39%
Expected home share46%
Combined Elo3084
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3084
Elo home share
46%
Match tone
Strong Watch
| Metric | AFC Eskilstuna | FBK Karlstad |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1510.3 | 1573.7 |
| Form Elo | 1477.3 | 1584.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1533.9 | 1517.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1632.9 | 1665.5 |
| Defense Elo | 1343.2 | 1541.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -26.3 | +12.5 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. AFC Eskilstuna last-5 Elo change: -26.3; FBK Karlstad last-5 Elo change: +12.5.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | AFC Eskilstuna | FBK Karlstad |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 4 | 4 |
| Form | 17% | 75% |
| Attack | 53% | 47% |
| Defense | 27% | 73% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 2 | 7 | 1.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 11 | 2.8 | 4 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
94%
FT probability
2.5+
66%
FT probability
3.5+
47%
FT probability
BTTS
83%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | AFC Eskilstuna | FBK Karlstad | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Wins | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 50% | 75% |
| Draws | 50% | 50% | 50% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Loses | 50% | 50% | 50% | 0% | 50% | 25% |
AFC EskilstunaDLDL
FBK KarlstadWWLW
League goals
| Metric | AFC Eskilstuna | FBK Karlstad | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 1 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| GF avg | 0.5 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| GA total | 3 | 8 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| GA avg | 1.5 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | AFC Eskilstuna | FBK Karlstad | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 75% | 100% | 100% | 75% |
| 1.5 | 50% | 75% | 50% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 25% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 25% | 50% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | AFC Eskilstuna | FBK Karlstad | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Penalties
| Metric | AFC Eskilstuna | FBK Karlstad |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | AFC Eskilstuna | FBK Karlstad |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 0 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 0 |
| Losses | 1 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | — | — | 2-1 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 4-3 | — | 2-1 |
| Goals For | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | AFC Eskilstuna | FBK Karlstad |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 18% | 82% |
| Att | 53% | 47% |
| Def | 27% | 73% |
| Poisson Distribution | 24% | 76% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 45% | 55% |
| Total | 36.2% | 63.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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