Sun, May 3 2026 • 14:00 •
Sodertalje Fotbollsarena
Expected Goals
1.64 (league 1.83)
1.97 (league 1.53)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 32.0% | 21.6% | 44.2% |
best score tips
1 - 1
8.7%
1 - 2
8.6%
2 - 1
7.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Järfälla | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Assyriska FF | 0 | 2.7% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 4.4% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 1.1% | |
| 2 | 3.7% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 0.9% | |
| 3 | 2.0% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.5% | |
| 4 | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away edge
Järfälla carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 61 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Assyriska FF -1.4, Järfälla -18.8.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Assyriska FF
vs
Järfälla
Elo gapJärfälla +61
Home / draw / away32% / 23% / 45%
Expected home share41%
Combined Elo3080.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3080.1
Elo home share
41%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Assyriska FF | Järfälla |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1492.2 | 1587.9 |
| Form Elo | 1491.1 | 1570.1 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1495.5 | 1526.6 |
| Attack Elo | 1564.3 | 1678.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1520.4 | 1583.1 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -1.4 | -18.8 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Assyriska FF last-5 Elo change: -1.4; Järfälla last-5 Elo change: -18.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Assyriska FF | Järfälla |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 4 | 4 |
| Form | 33% | 33% |
| Attack | 40% | 20% |
| Defense | 60% | 73% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.5 | 3 | 0.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.5 | 4 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
88%
FT probability
2.5+
62%
FT probability
3.5+
44%
FT probability
BTTS
80%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Assyriska FF | Järfälla | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Wins | 0% | 50% | 25% | 50% | 0% | 25% |
| Draws | 0% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 50% | 25% |
| Loses | 100% | 0% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% |
Assyriska FFLWLD
JärfällaDLLW
League goals
| Metric | Assyriska FF | Järfälla | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 4 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| GF avg | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| GA total | 6 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| GA avg | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Assyriska FF | Järfälla | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 75% | 50% | 75% | 75% |
| 1.5 | 50% | 50% | 0% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 25% | 25% | 0% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 25% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Assyriska FF | Järfälla | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Assyriska FF | Järfälla |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Assyriska FF | Järfälla |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 0 |
| Draws | 0 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | — | 0-2 | 1-0 | — |
| Biggest losses | 3-4 | — | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Assyriska FF | Järfälla |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 67% | 33% |
| Def | 40% | 60% |
| Poisson Distribution | 56% | 44% |
| H2h | 80% | 20% |
| Goals | 67% | 33% |
| Total | 60.0% | 40.0% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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