Ettan - Norra
— Sweden
Fri, May 1 2026 • 17:00 •
Danderyd IP
Expected Goals
3.29 (league 1.83)
3.93 (league 1.53)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 23.5% | 13.9% | 33.1% |
best score tips
3 - 3
4.4%
3 - 4
4.3%
2 - 3
4.0%
Score & goals probability table
| Vasalund | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Stocksund | 0 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 0.2% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 1.9% | |
| 2 | 0.4% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.1% | |
| 3 | 0.4% | 1.7% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 3.4% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 2.8% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 1.8% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away strong edge
Vasalund carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 97 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Stocksund -22.8, Vasalund -15.9.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Stocksund
vs
Vasalund
Elo gapVasalund +97
Home / draw / away29% / 19% / 52%
Expected home share36%
Combined Elo2961.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2961.8
Elo home share
36%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Stocksund | Vasalund |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1414.9 | 1546.9 |
| Form Elo | 1391.7 | 1535.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1466.3 | 1509.1 |
| Attack Elo | 1544.1 | 1701.5 |
| Defense Elo | 1170 | 1494.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -22.8 | -15.9 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Stocksund last-5 Elo change: -22.8; Vasalund last-5 Elo change: -15.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Stocksund | Vasalund |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 4 | 4 |
| Form | 8% | 33% |
| Attack | 53% | 47% |
| Defense | 20% | 47% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 2 | 7 | 1.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 12 | 3 | 8 | 2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
5.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
6.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
85%
FT probability
3.5+
69%
FT probability
BTTS
97%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Stocksund | Vasalund | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Wins | 0% | 0% | 0% | 50% | 0% | 25% |
| Draws | 50% | 0% | 25% | 0% | 50% | 25% |
| Loses | 50% | 100% | 75% | 50% | 50% | 50% |
StocksundLLDL
VasalundLLWD
League goals
| Metric | Stocksund | Vasalund | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 6 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| GF avg | 3.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| GA total | 8 | 4 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| GA avg | 4.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Stocksund | Vasalund | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 75% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 1.5 | 75% | 75% | 50% | 75% |
| 2.5 | 25% | 75% | 25% | 25% |
| 3.5 | 25% | 50% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Stocksund | Vasalund | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Penalties
| Metric | Stocksund | Vasalund |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Stocksund | Vasalund |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 0 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 0 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | — | — | 3-1 | — |
| Biggest losses | 2-4 | 3-2 | 1-3 | 2-1 |
| Goals For | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Stocksund | Vasalund |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 20% | 80% |
| Att | 53% | 47% |
| Def | 40% | 60% |
| Poisson Distribution | 56% | 44% |
| H2h | 29% | 71% |
| Goals | 28% | 72% |
| Total | 37.7% | 62.3% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home5.53 @ 1xBet
Draw4.70 @ 1xBet
Away1.44 @ Unibet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.37 @ Unibet
Under 2.52.70 @ Unibet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.50 @ Unibet
No2.40 @ Unibet
📊
League standings
Loading standings…