Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 16:30 •
Estadio La Portada
Expected Goals
1.27 (league 1.33)
0.85 (league 0.95)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 46.0% | 29.0% | 24.8% |
best score tips
1 - 0
15.3%
1 - 1
13.0%
0 - 0
12.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Huachipato | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| D. La Serena | 0 | 12.1% | 10.2% | 4.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 15.3% | 13.0% | 5.5% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 9.7% | 8.2% | 3.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 4.1% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
Huachipato carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 37 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: D. La Serena +29.5, Huachipato +20.8.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
D. La Serena
vs
Huachipato
Elo gapHuachipato +37
Home / draw / away33% / 26% / 41%
Expected home share45%
Combined Elo2985.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2985.6
Elo home share
45%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | D. La Serena | Huachipato |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1457 | 1528.6 |
| Form Elo | 1470.8 | 1554.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1482.5 | 1466.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1504 | 1570.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1412.4 | 1515.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +29.5 | +20.8 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. D. La Serena last-5 Elo change: +29.5; Huachipato last-5 Elo change: +20.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | D. La Serena | Huachipato |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 53% | 60% |
| Attack | 56% | 69% |
| Defense | 44% | 50% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 11 | 2.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.10
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
74%
FT probability
2.5+
52%
FT probability
3.5+
37%
FT probability
BTTS
63%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
3-5
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | D. La Serena | Huachipato | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 5 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 10 |
| Wins | 40% | 20% | 30% | 80% | 40% | 60% |
| Draws | 40% | 40% | 40% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Loses | 20% | 40% | 30% | 20% | 60% | 40% |
D. La SerenaDLLDWWDLWD
HuachipatoLWWWLLLWWW
League goals
| Metric | D. La Serena | Huachipato | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 7 | 6 | 13 | 13 | 5 | 18 |
| GF avg | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| GA total | 4 | 10 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 14 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | D. La Serena | Huachipato | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 70% | 70% | 70% | 80% |
| 1.5 | 40% | 40% | 60% | 40% |
| 2.5 | 20% | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 10% | 10% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 10% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | D. La Serena | Huachipato | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
Penalties
| Metric | D. La Serena | Huachipato |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | D. La Serena | Huachipato |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 3 |
| Draws | 1 | 0 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 0-1 | 5-1 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-1 | 4-0 | 1-3 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | D. La Serena | Huachipato |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 47% | 53% |
| Att | 45% | 55% |
| Def | 47% | 53% |
| Poisson Distribution | 58% | 42% |
| H2h | 29% | 71% |
| Goals | 38% | 63% |
| Total | 44.0% | 56.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.22 @ Betano
Draw3.35 @ Dafabet
Away3.53 @ Pinnacle
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.18 @ Betano
Under 2.51.77 @ Unibet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.85 @ BetVictor
No1.94 @ Unibet
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League standings
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