Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 19:00 •
Estadio Ester Roa
Expected Goals
0.60 (league 1.33)
0.85 (league 0.94)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 24.1% | 37.0% | 38.9% |
best score tips
0 - 0
23.4%
0 - 1
19.9%
1 - 0
14.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Colo Colo | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Universidad de Concepcion | 0 | 23.4% | 19.9% | 8.5% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 14.1% | 12.0% | 5.1% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 4.2% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Universidad de Concepcion carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 71 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Universidad de Concepcion -34.5, Colo Colo +41.3.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Universidad de Concepcion
vs
Colo Colo
Elo gapUniversidad de Concepcion +71
Home / draw / away47% / 22% / 31%
Expected home share60%
Combined Elo3057.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3057.3
Elo home share
60%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Universidad de Concepcion | Colo Colo |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1546.5 | 1510.8 |
| Form Elo | 1530.9 | 1539.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1531.5 | 1497.1 |
| Attack Elo | 1500.8 | 1421.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1523.7 | 1531.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -34.5 | +41.3 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Universidad de Concepcion last-5 Elo change: -34.5; Colo Colo last-5 Elo change: +41.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Universidad de Concepcion | Colo Colo |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 60% |
| Attack | 25% | 25% |
| Defense | 44% | 88% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 4 | 0.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 2 | 0.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
55%
FT probability
2.5+
39%
FT probability
3.5+
28%
FT probability
BTTS
57%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
3-5
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Universidad de Concepcion | Colo Colo | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 5 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 9 |
| Wins | 80% | 0% | 40% | 60% | 75% | 67% |
| Draws | 0% | 40% | 20% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Loses | 20% | 60% | 40% | 40% | 25% | 33% |
Universidad de ConcepcionWLWDLDWLWL
Colo ColoLWWWLWWWL
League goals
| Metric | Universidad de Concepcion | Colo Colo | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 5 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 9 |
| GF avg | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| GA total | 4 | 13 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Universidad de Concepcion | Colo Colo | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 70% | 70% | 78% | 33% |
| 1.5 | 10% | 40% | 22% | 11% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 40% | 0% | 11% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 10% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 10% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Universidad de Concepcion | Colo Colo | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | Universidad de Concepcion | Colo Colo |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Universidad de Concepcion | Colo Colo |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 3 |
| Draws | 1 | 0 |
| Losses | 1 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-1 | — | 2-0 | 0-1 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 5-1 | 0-1 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Universidad de Concepcion | Colo Colo |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 44% | 56% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 18% | 82% |
| Poisson Distribution | 38% | 62% |
| H2h | 38% | 62% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 39.7% | 60.3% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home4.45 @ Betano
Draw3.55 @ Betano
Away1.91 @ Dafabet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.10 @ Betano
Under 2.51.84 @ Unibet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.93 @ Betano
No1.97 @ Unibet
📊
League standings
Loading standings…