Primera A — Colombia
Fri, Apr 3 2026 • 01:30 • Estadio Palogrande
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.88 (league 1.12) 2.62 (league 0.79)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
38.6% 17.2% 32.3%
best score tips
2 - 2
5.8%
3 - 2
5.6%
2 - 3
5.1%
Score & goals probability table
Independiente Medellin
0 1 2 3 4 5
Once Caldas 0 0.4% 1.1% 1.4% 1.2% 0.8% 0.4%
1 1.2% 3.1% 4.0% 3.5% 2.3% 1.2%
2 1.7% 4.4% 5.8% 5.1% 3.3% 1.8%
3 1.6% 4.3% 5.6% 4.9% 3.2% 1.7%
4 1.2% 3.1% 4.0% 3.5% 2.3% 1.2%
5 0.7% 1.8% 2.3% 2.0% 1.3% 0.7%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricOnce CaldasIndependiente Medellin
Played55
Form53%60%
Attack100%100%
Defense0%0%
Goals For (tot | avg)9 | 1.88 | 1.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)8 | 1.66 | 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.20
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.60
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.70
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

89%
FT probability

2.5+

63%
FT probability

3.5+

45%
FT probability

BTTS

82%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

3 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Once Caldas Independiente Medellin
HATHAT
Played77146713
Wins57%29%43%33%29%31%
Draws29%57%43%33%29%31%
Loses14%14%14%33%43%38%

Form: Once Caldas: WDDDDWLWWWWDLD • Independiente Medellin: LLDDLWDDLWWLW

League goals

Metric Once Caldas Independiente Medellin
HATHAT
GF total169259918
GF avg2.31.31.81.51.31.4
GA total1171881018
GA avg1.61.01.31.31.41.4

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineOnce CaldasIndependiente Medellin
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.5100%86%85%85%
1.543%29%46%46%
2.521%7%8%8%
3.514%7%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricOnce CaldasIndependiente Medellin
HATHAT
Clean sheets112112
Failed to score000022

Penalties

MetricOnce CaldasIndependiente Medellin
Scored (total | %)4 | 100.00%3 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total43

Streaks

MetricOnce CaldasIndependiente Medellin
Wins42
Draws42
Losses12

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-00-22-01-3
Biggest losses1-42-11-23-1
Goals For4223
Goals Against4223

Model comparison

MetricOnce CaldasIndependiente Medellin
Form47%53%
Att53%47%
Def43%57%
Poisson Distribution51%49%
H2h29%71%
Goals29%71%
Total42.0%58.0%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Independiente Medellin

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.32 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.40 @ William Hill
Away3.30 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.62 @ William Hill
No2.26 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.78 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.52.07 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Once Caldas = 2.88 (league 1.12), Independiente Medellin = 2.62 (league 0.79)

Independiente Medellin
0 1 2 3 4 5
Once Caldas 0 0.4% 1.1% 1.4% 1.2% 0.8% 0.4%
1 1.2% 3.1% 4.0% 3.5% 2.3% 1.2%
2 1.7% 4.4% 5.8% 5.1% 3.3% 1.8%
3 1.6% 4.3% 5.6% 4.9% 3.2% 1.7%
4 1.2% 3.1% 4.0% 3.5% 2.3% 1.2%
5 0.7% 1.8% 2.3% 2.0% 1.3% 0.7%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 38.6% · Draw 17.2% · Away win 32.3%

vtt 1 , vtd1