Expected Goals
4.29 (league 1.17)
0.31 (league 0.80)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 70.2% | 2.9% | 0.7% |
best score tips
4 - 0
14.1%
3 - 0
13.2%
5 - 0
12.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Jaguares | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Bucaramanga | 0 | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 4.3% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 9.2% | 2.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 13.2% | 4.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 14.1% | 4.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 12.1% | 3.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Bucaramanga carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 46 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Bucaramanga -44.5, Jaguares -59.0.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Bucaramanga
vs
Jaguares
Elo gapBucaramanga +46
Home / draw / away43% / 25% / 32%
Expected home share57%
Combined Elo3065.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3065.9
Elo home share
57%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Bucaramanga | Jaguares |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1538.6 | 1527.3 |
| Form Elo | 1518.1 | 1477.7 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1532.4 | 1517.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1516.1 | 1507 |
| Defense Elo | 1589.8 | 1521.9 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -44.5 | -59.0 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Bucaramanga last-5 Elo change: -44.5; Jaguares last-5 Elo change: -59.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Bucaramanga | Jaguares |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 20% | 27% |
| Attack | 54% | 46% |
| Defense | 38% | 31% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 9 | 1.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.60
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.90
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
75%
FT probability
2.5+
53%
FT probability
3.5+
38%
FT probability
BTTS
64%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-5
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Bucaramanga | Jaguares | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 8 | 9 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 17 |
| Wins | 50% | 11% | 29% | 44% | 0% | 24% |
| Draws | 38% | 44% | 41% | 11% | 13% | 12% |
| Loses | 13% | 44% | 29% | 44% | 88% | 65% |
BucaramangaWDDWDDDWWDDLLLLWL
JaguaresWLDWLWLLLLLLDLWLL
League goals
| Metric | Bucaramanga | Jaguares | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 17 | 6 | 23 | 12 | 4 | 16 |
| GF avg | 2.1 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.9 |
| GA total | 4 | 12 | 16 | 12 | 19 | 31 |
| GA avg | 0.5 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 1.8 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Bucaramanga | Jaguares | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 59% | 59% | 71% | 82% |
| 1.5 | 35% | 35% | 18% | 59% |
| 2.5 | 18% | 0% | 6% | 29% |
| 3.5 | 12% | 0% | 0% | 6% |
| 4.5 | 12% | 0% | 0% | 6% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Bucaramanga | Jaguares | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 5 |
Penalties
| Metric | Bucaramanga | Jaguares |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Bucaramanga | Jaguares |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 1 |
| Draws | 3 | 1 |
| Losses | 4 | 6 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-0 | 1-2 | 3-1 | — |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 2-0 | 0-2 | 5-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Bucaramanga | Jaguares |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 43% | 57% |
| Att | 54% | 46% |
| Def | 53% | 47% |
| Poisson Distribution | 93% | 7% |
| H2h | 85% | 15% |
| Goals | 86% | 14% |
| Total | 69.0% | 31.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.39 @ Betano
Draw4.71 @ Pinnacle
Away8.90 @ 10Bet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.78 @ Unibet
Under 2.52.10 @ 10Bet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.08 @ Unibet
No1.80 @ 10Bet
📊
League standings
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